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000
FXUS63 KAPX 151745
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
145 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures early this week.

- Showers/possible thunderstorms along with gusty winds are
  expected Tuesday night through early Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast Update: Height rises will overspread the upper Lakes today
as short wave ridge moves into Manitoba/upper Midwest with surface
ridge remaining in place.  Result should be a quiet afternoon with
perhaps some diurnal Cu through mid afternoon across eastern Upper/
Tip of the Mitt counties.  Above normal temperatures expected this
afternoon though there will be a north-south gradient in afternoon
highs (50s eastern Upper/tip of the mitt and 60-65 from M-32
south).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Morning Synopsis: 12z surface analysis shows 1019mb high over Lake
Winnipeg ridging southeast into the Midwest/Great Lakes...north of
an east-west baroclinic zone from northern New Jersey west across
Ohio/Indiana/southern Illinois/central Missouri.  Northwest-
southeast oriented jet streak (110kt) across Lake Superior/eastern
Upper/northern Lake Huron...elongated latent PV anomaly on the
cyclonic side of the jet axis. Cooler/drier air spreading into
the upper Lakes from the northwest along with large scale
subsidence... leading to partly-mostly sunny skies across
northern Michigan per old school nephanalysis (no satellite
imagery since 0740z). Just some Ac around Grand Traverse and
Little Traverse Bays.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low level ridging continues to build into the Northern and
Western Great Lakes...with the main area of high pressure still
well to our north and west extending from Central Canada into
the Northern Plains. Skies are mainly clear across our entire
CWA attm...with temps cooling into the 30s thanks to clear skies
and light winds.

One patch of mid clouds is dropping SE out of Lake Superior and
Western Upper Michigan toward our northern CWA...and will drift thru
this area during the morning. Ridge axis will continue to build into
Michigan today and tonight... pushing east of our state on Tuesday.
Dry wx will persist for the next 24 hours at least...with overall
mainly clear skies expected. High temps this afternoon will range
from the low to mid 50s across Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower
Michigan to the mid 60s near Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will
cool into the low to mid 30s thanks to clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Increasing clouds/winds through the day Tuesday. This is in advance
of the well advertised Pacific trough which will methodically move
across the region Tuesday night through early Thursday. Showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms can be expected during this time along
with gusty winds. Guidance has backed off on how warm it will get
during the day with temperatures generally near seasonable levels
(mainly 50s).

Looking farther ahead, extended guidance has also backed off on the
magnitude of the cold air due in for late week. This is because the
Pacific trough (see above) remains mainly separate from an incoming
northern stream trough. This trough is now shown to largely pass by
to our north (across southern Canada). This is good news for spring
lovers with only a couple of days of cooler temperatures (mainly in
the 40s to low 50s) now on the docket. Although much if not all of
this time will likely be precipitation free, there will be small
chances for a few rain or perhaps even snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

VFR flight conditions expected through Tuesday morning...some
gustiness to winds this afternoon at KCIU with a lake breeze
component to winds at KTVC and perhaps fighting one at KAPN.
Light winds tonight will become more predominantly southeast on
Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JPB