Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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419 FXUS63 KARX 101750 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1250 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms develop across the region this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms are possible with small hail and gusty winds the primary threat. - Periodic rain/storm chances persist Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Today into Sunday Latest 07z surface analysis shows surface ridge over western Wisconsin/southern Minnesota. With subsidence underneath surface ridge...clear skies and light winds has allowed fog to develop mainly in low lying areas and river valleys this morning. Fog should erode this morning due to daytime heating and skies will become mostly sunny. Then focus turns to vigorous shortwave trough over southern Canada tracking over the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. With daytime heating and vertical motion/forcing associated with shortwave trough...showers/storms will develop along/ahead of shortwave trough/surface front. Latest 10.12z GFS/NAM suggest 0-3km shear of 20 to 30 knots...however instability is limited with up to 500 j/kg of surface base CAPE by 21z today. Bufkit soundings indicate inverted V soundings and straight hodographs across forecast area this afternoon evening. Given limited instability and marginal shear...expect a few thunderstorms to be strong with gusty winds and hail. Subsidence behind shortwave trough and under shortwave ridge building in over the forecast area should provide dry weather across much of the forecast area Saturday. A weaker shortwave trough is expected to move over the Great Lakes Region Sunday. The better lift/moisture convergence associated with this shortwave trough will be over northern and eastern half of Wisconsin. With daytime heating/weak moisture convergence near the surface will provide scattered showers/storms across central Wisconsin with lesser chances along/west of the Mississippi River Sunday afternoon/evening. Monday through Thursday Main forecast concerns Monday through Thursday are shower/storm chances through much of the forecast period. The latest deterministic models/ensembles indicate west to east zonal flow pattern developing through next week with major differences occurring late in the forecast period. Weak upper level closed low slowly tracks over the Central Plains states early next week. Forecast area remains on the northern periphery of this feature. Main axis of lift/moisture convergence is expected to be south of the forecast area...however there is enough vertical motion/forcing to produce showers and the possibility of a few storms...mainly across the southern parts of the forecast area. Then...west to east zonal flow pattern develops. Couple of pieces energy embedded in the west to east zonal flow will allow showers/storms develop over the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday. By Thursday...major differences occur between deterministic/ensemble members in upper level trough deepening over the Northern Plain states or flow pattern remains nearly west to east across the northern tier states. This will have impacts on much showers/storms linger across the Upper Great Lakes into Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front will sweep through the area with increasing clouds, showers and a few thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show deepening mid-level moisture, however instability looks somewhat limited. Increase clouds through the afternoon fl070-100. The showers seem most likely to be near or at the TAF sites between 22-00Z. Due to low confidence in the thunderstorms did not mention at this time. Winds from the southwest with veer to the west and northwest with a period of strong gusts 25 to 35kts through 01 or 02Z. Winds diminish to less than 10kts with clearing skies after that. Northwest flow continues for Saturday morning and increase 10 to 20kts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DTJ AVIATION...Zapotocny