214
FXUS61 KBGM 010722
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
322 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather has returned for today into Friday. Temperatures
will remain above average for early May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
11 pm update...

Increased fog with many sites reporting it and where clearing is
in Yates and Steuben it is dense. Sped up departure of rain
showers. Increased cloud cover in the northeast.

655 PM Update...

With the weak cold front that has since moved through the
forecast area, leftover thunderstorms remain at the very
southeastern edge of NE PA that will continue to decay through
the next 30 minutes to an hour. Widespread light rain showers
remain behind this front in Central NY, and will continue
through through the next 4 to 6 hours or so. The only major
change to this forecast update was decreasing chances for
thunderstorms through tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.


205 PM update...

With plentiful sunshine this morning into the early afternoon,
1000 to 1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed across the
Finger Lakes down into NEPA. Wind shear is weakening as the
stronger 500 mb winds move off to the east but still there is 30
knots of 0-6 km shear through the rest of the afternoon. With a
shortwave trough moving in, falling heights and weak cold air
advection have weakened the cap with storms developing. Storms
will likely grow upscale in the next few hours with the
potential for a few microburst and up to quarter size hail.
Heavy rainfall is possible with these storms as they grow
upscale and become more like an MCS. Some of the high res models
have stripes of 1 to 2 inches with these storms through the
evening so after the severe threat is over, a flash flood risk
takes over. The trough axis moves east of the region after
midnight with chances of precipitation dwindling quickly. With
the precipitation, fog could develop if the clouds can clear
before sunrise tomorrow.

Tomorrow will have slightly cooler aloft so temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler than today but still above average. A
subsidence inversion in place will keep the atmosphere stable
but some drizzle is possible at high elevations of the Catskills
and Poconos good boundary layer moisture flows over the summits
and cools adiabatically.

Better chance of fog on Wednesday night as surface high pressure
builds in with winds calming down and good radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

320 AM Update...

Quiet weather through the short term period as high pressure
takes control. Light southerly flow and warm advection will
boost temperatures above average with highs into the 70s area-
wide on Friday. Next frontal system will approach from the west
late Friday night into Saturday. This will bring increasing
clouds overnight with showers possible by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

320 AM Update...

Weak frontal boundary will push into the area on Saturday.
Scattered rain showers will be possible through the day and high
temperatures will be cooler, dropping into the 60s over most
areas. A second front will quickly push into the Great Lakes
Sunday, with shower chances increasing later Sunday afternoon.
The shortwave trough associated with this system looks to stay
focused to our north, however, and this will mean less upper
level support, and spotty/disorganized shower coverage. Temps
look to be similar to Saturday.

High pressure with dry weather returns once again, just in time
for the start of the workweek on Monday. A warm front to our
south may become the focus for showers heading into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 am update...

IFR fog is across most of CNY and should remain through 12z.
Some sites have or will drop below airport minimums. Conditions
improve to VFR by 16z in south central NY by 16z and SYR/RME by
18z.

AVP is VFR for now. They could drop to MVFR in fog and low cigs
at times from 8 to 12z.

Early this morning winds will be light and variable. During the
day winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 kts. Tonight winds will
be 5 kts of less from the east and southeast.

Outlook...

Tonight and Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Sunday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/KL/TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/TAC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...TAC