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000
FXUS64 KBMX 212309
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
609 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

The last few showers are about an hour or two from moving into
Georgia as the low-level trough axis is passing over the area. The
mid-level portion of the trough is still moving towards the Mid-
South region, but drier air is already moving in over western
portions of Central Alabama where cloud cover is beginning to
decrease. Looks like most locations will have some periods of sun
this afternoon, but the northerly flow won`t allow temperatures
to warm up too much. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s with a
northerly breezy at 8 to 12 mph.

The mid-level trough axis will pass over the area tonight as deeper
north to northwest flow develops, ushering in a cool, dry
continental airmass. There`s a good chance this will be one of the
final nights of the Spring season where temperatures will touch
the upper 30s at some of our northern locations. The rest of the
area will see lows in the lower to mid 40s. Sunny skies are
expected tomorrow as deep ridging builds across the Lower MS River
Valley making for a pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

Only adjustment needed in the long term this afternoon was to add
a low chance of showers in the extreme northwest Friday night and
Saturday. A shortwave lifting over the ridge could bring a
glancing chance of showers, but with the ridge holding firm, do
not expect more than a few showers.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

We can expect a chilly Monday night and Tuesday morning as high
pressure becomes centered over the region. Clear skies and very
light winds will promote strong radiational cooling with lows
mainly in the lower to middle 40s, though the coldest spots
should see upper 30s. Dry conditions are expected to persist
through the end of the long term period, initially supported by
dry west-northwest 500 mb flow through Thursday. Thereafter, a
notable ridge is expected to take hold over the Southeast CONUS
and Gulf of Mexico. This should deflect any shortwaves and keep
conditions dry through Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

VFR conds thru the period with no cig or vsby issues expected.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is arriving this afternoon, with rain moving out of the
area. Breezy 20ft northerly winds diminish to 6 to 10mph Monday,
with minimum RH values in the 25 to 35 percent range. 20ft winds
become southerly on Tuesday, at 6 to 10mph, with minimum RH values
in the 30 to 40 percent range. Rainfree conditions continue
through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     38  68  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    39  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  40  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  40  70  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      41  67  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      44  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  43  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        44  70  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...58/rose