908
FXUS62 KCAE 290009
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
809 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure centered northeast of the region will remain
in control through Monday along with a warming trend. A weak
front is expected to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly northern and
eastern areas. Above normal temperatures persist into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite observations as of 8pm show clearing across the
forecast area with weak high pressure continuing to ridge over
the forecast area. HiRes guidance does point to the potential
of some patchy stratus and maybe even some fog late tonight into
early Monday morning. Fairly persistent forecast with lows in
the mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday Night: Generally quiet weather expected with
an upper ridge axis over the forecast area. All of the active
weather remains off to the northwest as a series of shortwaves
move through the western OH and MS/TN Valleys on the west side
of the upper ridge. Atmospheric moisture over our area with be
slightly lower on Monday compared to today with PWATs falling
below an inch through the day as low level flow shifts from
southeasterly to more south or southwesterly. Due to low level
moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion, would not be
surprised to see some stratus in the morning. However, once any
stratus burns off there should be some sunshine through the
afternoon. Model forecast soundings indicate a strong subsidence
inversion around 850mb which will limit instability. 850mb
temps should warm a couple of degrees and with more sunshine
this should result in warmer max temperatures in the lower to
mid 80s. Dry weather continues Monday night with slightly warmer
overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. It would
not be surprising to see some predawn stratus develop along the
Coastal Plain and move into the forecast area early Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Ensemble and global guidance is in
reasonable agreement bringing shortwave energy into the forecast
area from the TN Valley late Tuesday and Tuesday night which
will bring an increase in rain chances. There are some timing
differences among the faster GFS and slower ECWMF but this
shortwave trough is forecast to amplify a bit as it moves into
the area with the existing upper ridge shifting offshore and
another upper ridge building over the MS Valley in response to
deep upper troughing over the intermountain west by Tuesday
night.

Atmospheric moisture is forecast to increase to slightly above
normal on Tuesday combining with upper forcing that moves in
later in the afternoon to support at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region into Tuesday night. Deep
southwesterly flow should yield some instability but the degree
of instability may depend on how long it takes to erode the
capping inversion around 700mb, and nevertheless should support
possible thunderstorms, though the chance of severe
thunderstorms seems unlikely.

Temperatures should warm further with max temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, while overnight lows Tuesday night are expected to be in
the upper 50s west to lower 60s east with lingering cloud cover and
possible showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is somewhat lower confidence in rain chances on Wednesday
as the slow moving upper trough traverses toward the coast due
to timing issues with the guidance. Kept some low pops across
the eastern Midlands, lower CSRA and Pee Dee region to account
for possible slower timing. The western portion of the forecast
area should have lower chances as some drier air begins to work
into the region with a weak surface front/trough slowly pushing
through the area by Wednesday evening.

Ensemble guidance is consistent in showing another shortwave
ridge building over the forecast area on Thursday and persisting
into Friday with forecast soundings showing a strong subsidence
inversion around 700mb. This will support continued above
normal temperatures through the extended forecast period.
Chances of rain will increase again over the weekend as
shortwave energy from the west effectively weakens the upper
ridge and 500mb flow becomes more zonal in nature giving way to
additional shortwaves interacting with above normal moisture
resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Depending on
the amount of instability available over the weekend, strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out and CSU ML probabilities are
highlighting a potential threat, although confidence remains low
this far out. Wednesday through Friday look to be the warmest
days of the period with highs in the mid to upper 80s and cannot
totally rule out a 90 degree reading, but with increased
moisture and clouds and possible storms over the weekend, highs
should be slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Vfr to start the period, then possible ifr/lifr ceilings in
stratus before sunrise on Monday before a return to vfr through
the day.

With loss of heating this evening, clouds are dissipating and
skies becoming mostly clear. These conditions are expected to
continue until around 09z. Between 10z and 13z, guidance is
beginning to indicate the development of a low stratus deck
moving into the Savannah River Region. Confidence is increasing
at ags/dnl for the development of ifr/lifr conditions between
10z-13z, and have gone with a predominant lifr group at those
sites for that period. Further east in the Midlands guidance is
showing cae/cub/ogb more on the edge of the developing stratus,
so confidence is somewhat lower at those sites. As such have
only gone with a tempo period for now at those locations between
10z-12z. Will continue to monitor later guidance and adjust if
needed. Winds light to calm overnight, then increase out of the
south through the day generally around 5 to 8 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in early morning
fog or stratus. Then there is at least a slight chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday onward.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$