Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230058
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
858 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will overspread the region tonight as a low pressure
system approaches from the Deep South. Widespread showers and a
few thunderstorms are expected tonight, becoming more scattered
on Saturday as the upper low moves over the area. Breezy
conditions are possible Saturday afternoon and evening as the
pressure gradient tightens. Upper ridging will build over the
area for Sunday and Monday. A slow-moving cold front will move
through the area during the mid-week period with the next
chance of showers. Temperatures will be below normal this
weekend, warming to near to above normal values for the mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Waves of showers continue to overspread the area thanks to
strong 850-700mb warm advection and corresponding isentropic
lift ahead of the approaching low pressure system and upper
level trough. Heights will continue to fall overnight into
Saturday morning as the 500mb trough axis remains to our west,
but isentropic lift will weaken slightly with 850-700mb shifting
more southwesterly behind the primary axis of frontogenesis
that is currently pushing through. While widespread are expected
through roughly 03z, precip should become more scattered for
the rest of the overnight period as the overrunning flow
weakens slightly, with 40+ knot 850mb winds shifting into NC.
Heights falls aloft and continuing low level moisture advection
into the area will help develop a bit of instability across the
area just ahead of the 500mb trough axis. So combining some
enhanced synoptic forcing and the steepening mid-level lapse
rates will likely allow for a few thunderstorms to develop
overnight. The HRRR and much of the other hi-res guidance
suggests this as well, falling in line with ht previous
thinking, developing some deeper convection into the CSRA and
Midlands within a weakly unstable environment with modest low-
deep layer shear. So a few loosely organized clusters of strong
showers or weak thunderstorms are expected overnight; the
severe potential looks limited thanks to barely any surface
based instability and only marginal shear profiles anyhow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday Night: The upper trough will be situated
over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys at the start of the day
becoming negatively tilted as it slowly moves east, passing over
the CWA Saturday night. While the surface low will pull away
early in the day, the combination of lingering moisture and the
approaching upper trough will likely produce scattered showers
with a few thunderstorms possible, especially closer to the
coast. Breezy conditions are possible later in the day as the
pressure gradient tightens but confidence is not high enough at
this time to warrant a Lake Wind Advisory. A cooler and drier
air mass rushes in Saturday night with skies clearing out.
Temperatures will be below normal.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Upper ridging builds into the region
and will combine with surface high pressure passing to our
north to produce a sunny, cool, and dry day. Gusty conditions
may persist during the first half of the day but the pressure
gradient should relax allowing our winds to gradually diminish.
Clear skies and light winds at night could create a risk of
frost/freeze conditions, particularly over the Northern
Midlands. Temperatures continue to be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The axis of the upper ridge moves overhead on Monday, passing
to our east on Tuesday in response to a developing trough over
the Central CONUS. Meanwhile, high pressure maintains dry
conditions over the FA on Monday before the next storm system
approaches on Tuesday. Unsettled weather is possible during the
mid-week period as it may take several days for this storm to
clear the region with high pressure arriving near the end of the
extended. Temperatures will likely be near to below normal on
Monday and near to above normal during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deteriorating conditions tonight and into Saturday morning.

Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected
through the overnight, then becoming scattered Saturday morning
after 23/12z. Ceilings expected to lower to MVFR/IFR tonight
with periods of LIFR early Saturday morning. Expect some reduced
VSBYs in +RA and patchy fog. Ceilings may improve late Saturday
morning as showers scatter out and weaken. SFC winds will shift
from east to south tonight and may be gusty to 15-20 kts at
times. Winds then shift to north/northwest Saturday with rain
ending Saturday afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some restrictions possible
Saturday afternoon. No significant impacts to aviation expected
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


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