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Water Supply Outlook                                           February 6, 2024


ABRFC will be using the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

The fall and early winter season have been a little dryer than normal for the
Arkansas and Canadian River Basins. However, precipitation has picked up over the past
few weeks. Hopefully this slightly wetter weather pattern will continue.

At the end of January, snowpack conditions were a little above normal across the
Upper Arkansas Basin. The snowpack is slightly below normal across the Canadian Basin
and the Front Range in southern Colorado.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 88 percent-of-average for the
Arkansas River at Salida and 85 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff
from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to be 58, 75, and
65 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 92 percent-
of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to be 67 percent-
of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 65 and 56 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 50 and 63 percent-of-average, respectively.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-January) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado is near median, overall. Reports range from 66 percent-of-
median at Whiskey Creek to 142 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above
Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is 92 percent-of- median snowpack. Snowpack
in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 87 percent-of-median. In the Purgatoire River
basin, the snow pack is at 99 percent-of-median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is below median. Reports range from
59 percent-of-median at Red River Pass to 83 percent-of-median at Wesner Springs. The
snowpack in the Canadian River basin is below normal at 85 percent-of-median.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 113 percent-of-median above
Pueblo Reservoir and 89 percent-of-median below the resorvoir.  The upper reservoirs
are at 116 percent of last year`s total.  The lower reservoirs are at 151 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation
outlooks for the nation. The outlook for February through April calls for equal chances
of above, below, or near normal temperatures in the Arkansas and Canadian Basins.
The outlook calls for equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation across
mountainous areas of Colorado and New Mexico.


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