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000
FXUS64 KCRP 211727
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Based on radar trends and the latest CAMs, have updated the PoPs
and temperatures through this afternoon. Kept a slight chance
(10-20%) of mainly showers by this afternoon due to moisture
remaining in place and combining with a long wave trough that will
be moving east across the plains and TX through the afternoon.
The convection is elevated and by this afternoon, mid level
moisture will be decreasing which should inhibit deeper
convection (TSRAs) from developing. Current temperatures are a few
degrees lower than previously anticipated. Thus, with clouds and
isolated light precip continuing this afternoon, have lowered the
temperatures by 2-4 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Elevated convection is ending as an upper level disturbance moves
east of the region. This upper system, and an upper level
disturbance to move across the Mississippi Valley/Midwest today,
has contributed to the southward movement of the cold front, that
is moving offshore per MSAS analysis. Slightly drier conditions
are expected this afternoon/tonight. No fire weather concerns this
afternoon as relative humidity values remain elevated. Return
flow/increasing moisture expected Monday, as the surface
anticyclone over the region shifts eastward and as surface low
pressure deepens over the lee of the Rockies. PWAT values Monday
increase to near normal over the CWA. The NAM/GFS predict weak
isentropic lift/mostly cloudy skies Monday, yet do not expect
significant precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Not much of a change from the previous Extended range forecast
package. Ridging will continue to build aloft and at the surface
remaining in control through at least Tuesday. Moisture will begin
to increase around mid week as the surface high transitions eastward
and a more steady onshore flow resumes. A few showers will be
possible Wednesday mainly over the marine zones as the arrival of
the higher moisture coincides with a weak passing mid level
disturbance on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Although moisture
will be on the increase through the remainder of the work week, the
ridge aloft will hold tight until the next upper low transitions
into the Southern Plains by late week. A few showers will be
possible late in the week into next weekend, but at the moment
probabilities are too low to be included in the forecast.

Expect increasingly warmer temperatures through the week, with highs
nearing the mid to upper 90s Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows
will start off cool and in the mid 50s to mid 60s range Monday
night, but by Thursday morning these should climb into the upper 60s
to low 70s range. Winds will become gusty at times by late in the
week as a surface low deepens over the Southern Plains increasing
the pressure gradient across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Isolated showers are expected to continue through mid to late
afternoon, mainly from LRD to ALI and CRP. A slight chance (5-15%)
of rain will be possible again Monday morning, but should only
have minimal aviation impacts. Otherwise, prevailing conditions
are expected to become VFR through this afternoon and continue
much of tonight with CIGs generally between 4k-15k feet, then
brief MVFR CIGs Monday morning. Surface winds will remain gusty
from the north through mid to late afternoon with gusts up to
28kt. Winds are expected decrease through the evening and shift to
the northeast direction overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A cold front is moving across the waters early this morning, in
response an upper level disturbance currently moving across the
region. Another upper system will move across the Mississippi
Valley/Midwest today and will maintain the surge of surface high
pressure over the region through tonight. Thus, strong offshore
flow expected today over the waters. Adjusted the Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) timing over the bays/coastal waters based on HREF
probability of >20kt 10-meter wind. In particular, ended the SCA
over the bays at 21z today, and retained the SCA for the coastal
waters until 09z Monday. Generally weak to moderate northeast
flow expected Monday. A weak to moderate easterly flow will
develop Monday evening, with winds becoming southeasterly by early
Tuesday morning. A generally weak to moderate onshore flow will
then persist through most of next week. By next Friday,
southeasterly flow will become moderate to strong, which could
lead to elevated seas and Small Craft Advisory conditions. There
is a low chance (15-20%) of showers Wednesday morning in response
to the combination of deeper moisture and a weak passing
disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  59  73  61 /  30  10   0   0
Victoria          68  52  73  54 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            69  59  73  61 /  20  10  10   0
Alice             71  56  74  57 /  30  10  10   0
Rockport          73  60  74  65 /  20   0   0   0
Cotulla           68  57  75  60 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  57  72  58 /  30  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       72  64  74  67 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ231-
     232-236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...TE/81