Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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023 FXUS64 KCRP 271822 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 122 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Key Messages: - High risk of rip currents through tonight - Minor coastal flooding likely today - Strong winds expected today. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM through 7 PM - Isolated to scattered showers tonight and Sunday While not expected, there is a low chance of isolated showers today due to an upper level disturbance. A surface low pressure will develop today, resulting in a strong onshore flow. A Wind Advisory is now in place from 10 AM through 7 PM across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. The pressure gradient will eventually shift to the west this evening, which could lead to Wind Advisory conditions over the Brush Country. An upper level trough will move across the area Sunday combining with abundant moisture and moderate instability to produce a 20%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads. The Storm Prediction Center has included these areas in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, though I suspect it is more likely that strong storms will move down into South Texas from the Hill Country rather than develop over our area due to a capping inversion. Strong onshore flow today will lead to several hazards across the Middle Texas Coast. First, a combination of strong winds and long period swell will lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches. These conditions will also lead to a high risk of rip currents along Gulf facing beaches today through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week - Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek While a series of shortwaves will keep a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily through the upcoming week, things will remain relatively quiet for the long term forecast. Winds will weaken Sunday night, with a weak to moderate onshore flow persisting. Temperatures will be warm with highs in the mid 80s across the east to the mid 90s across the west. With persistent moderate to strong southeasterly flow through the weekend, long period swells, and large sea states, minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches is possible during times of high tide. This risk could continue through the middle of the week before swell periods begin to decrease, diminishing the chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected this afternoon across all of the TAF sites. This is expected to become predominantly MVFR by this evening between 22-04Z. Winds are expected to be elevated with gusts around 25-35KT across mainly the eastern sites beginning this afternoon (CRP and VCT). The western sites (LRD and COT) pick up later this evening around 04Z. MVFR conditions will likely persist through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots remain likely through Sunday. Seas will remain elevated through Monday morning, so the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Monday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight and Sunday morning. The strong onshore flow will weaken through Sunday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is then expected to persist from Monday morning through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 86 75 88 / 0 30 10 20 Victoria 73 85 73 88 / 0 50 30 30 Laredo 75 93 74 95 / 10 20 0 30 Alice 74 88 74 91 / 0 40 10 30 Rockport 74 83 75 83 / 0 40 20 30 Cotulla 74 91 73 94 / 20 30 10 30 Kingsville 74 88 75 90 / 0 40 10 30 Navy Corpus 75 84 75 84 / 0 30 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-242>247- 342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ345-442-443- 447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345- 442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...NP/92