671
FXUS64 KCRP 071736
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1236 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Messages:

 There`s a moderate to major risk for heat related illness Tuesday
  and Wednesday

 There`s a Moderate Risk for Rip currents through Wednesday morning

The region will be under a zonal flow aloft with a mid-level low
pressure system over the northern Plains and a mid-level high over
western Mexico. There`s a few disturbances that will move across the
region and will keep silent PoP`s in the forecast but expecting the
CAP to be a major limiting factor. The big story here will be the
heat.

WAA in the lower to mid levels will combine with humid conditions
near the surface resulting in a Moderate to a Major risk of heat
related impacts across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, According
to the NWS Heat Risk tool. Currently, there`s a low to medium chance
(30-40%) for Heat Indices of at least 110 degrees across the
southern Coastal Plains and southern Coastal Bend for a few hours on
Wednesday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed but will hold off
issuing for now. Regardless, Don`t get caught off-guard by the first
heat of summer as temperatures will ramp-up quickly. Take proper
precautions for heat safety, have a plan to stay cool and hydrated,
have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and warnings.

Have opted to let the Coastal Flood Advisory and the High Rip
Current Risk to expire this morning as swell heights/periods have
decreased to around 3 ft and 7 seconds respectively. Will keep a
moderate risk for rip currents through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to major HeatRisk Thursday.

- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return
  temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

- Moisture returns to the region this weekend bringing increasing
  rain chances into early next week.

Another day of intense heat is expected Thursday with heat index
values ranging from 105 to 113 degrees across the region, highest
across the inland Coastal Bend. Heat advisories will likely be
needed for some locations.

Relief to the heat is in store Friday into the weekend as a cold
front moves through Thursday night. Confidence in any precipitation
with the front remains very low, but if any storms do manage to
form, the best chance would be near or north of the Victoria
Crossroads.

The front will stall out around the area over the weekend with a low
(15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. Deeper moisture looks
to stream back in by Sunday. This increase in moisture combined with
the subtropical jet setting up over the area and embedded shortwave
troughs could lead to increased rain chances late this weekend into
early next week. Current long range ensemble models have about a 30
percent chance of at least a quarter inch of rain across much of the
Coastal Plains and around a 15 percent chance of at least an inch of
rain.

This is still a ways out and plenty of uncertainty remains, but it
certainly warrants keeping an eye on over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR Ceilings should eventually become VFR in the next few hours
as mixing continues. Some clearing is likely across the Rio
Grande and Brush Country, but VFR clouds should linger across the
Coastal Plains where moisture is deeper. IFR Ceilings return this
evening with tempo LIFR ceilings possible late and toward morning across
much of the region (except far west) as the inversion becomes more
shallow. Ceilings will slowly lift to MVFR by late Wednesday
morning. Winds will be light from the southeast through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow increases to moderate flow early
Wednesday. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) for showers
or thunderstorms today. Moderate onshore flow will continue
through Wednesday night. Winds will diminish Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the northeast Friday
and Saturday, then to the east on Sunday. There is a 15-30% chance
of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  96  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          74  92  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Laredo            77 107  76 107 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             74 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  87  77  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           77 104  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        75 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       78  89  78  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JM/75