127
FXUS61 KCTP 031119
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
719 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Not as warm but pleasant end to the week with increasing clouds
-Noticeable cool down over the weekend with periods of rain
-Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunshine to start today will be followed by increasing clouds
into tonight. High pressure channeling down the eastern slopes
of the Appalachians will maintain dry wx over the majority of
the CWA (eastern 2/3) through 00Z Sat with max POPs to the west
of the US219 corridor. This area should be in the warm sector
where the most unstable air will reside. A couple of locally
heavy t-storm downpours could produce spot amounts >1" on the
west aspect of the Allegheny Plateau near the edge of higher
pwat air surging in from the upper OH Valley. The WPC D1 ERO
covers this area, with the greatest threat just outside of our
CWA (over PBZ) based on the latest 03/06Z HREF. The 24hr
maxTchange will be considerably cooler over the central and
southeastern ridge/valley region this afternoon with fcst highs
giving back 7-15 degrees from yesterdays record challenging to
record breaking temps.

Shower activity should eventually expand west to east through
tonight as an increasingly moist east/southeast flow brings
widespread low clouds and perhaps some fog/mist on the
ridgetops. Still downplaying non-severe t-storm potential given
increasing low level stability/CAD pattern setup and lack of
MUCAPE. Low temps will be above early May climo and range
between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to
Warren County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA on
Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM.
No risk of thunder on Saturday so removed from wx grids and
changed character of precip to rain from showers.

Rain/showers continue through Sunday night with highs recovering
5-10F over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA. Some isolated convection
is possible in this area Sunday PM as the warm sector shifts to
the east. Despite the relatively high moisture availability,
limited rain rates should keep blended mean QPF btwn 0.50-1.00
inches ending 00Z Monday. Fcst lows Sunday night will be +10-15F
above climo for early May in the 50-60F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period will trend milder and remain unsettled with
several chances for rain. A cold front will stall near or south
of the MD line Monday and Tuesday before lifting to the
northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best
chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to
50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps
will trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s.

With several chances for rain next week along with persistent
mild temperatures, green up should rapidly expand into northern
PA thus ending the spring fire weather season. Additionally,
there is no chance for frost or freeze conditions through the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/unrestricted conditions should remain in place across
central PA terminal sites into this evening. Confidence on this
scenario is fairly high (70-90%).

An area of showers could reach the Allegheny Highlands late in
the day (as early as 21-22z) and perhaps bring fuel alternate-
MVFR restrictions at KJST and KBFD. The threat for MVFR cigs
then increases substantially between 22z Fri and 02z Sat across
the Laurels and Alleghenies, including JST, BFD, AOO, and UNV.

Conds will continue to deteriorate Fri night into early Sat
morning as southeast onshore flow advects cooler, moist air from
the North Atlantic. IFR cigs are likely (60 percent chance or
higher) for most TAF sites by 12z Sat, with the exception of
IPT.

Light surface winds will increase out of the SE to 5-10 kt
Friday. Occasional gusts of around 20 kt could occur in the
afternoon. Southeast flow will continue into Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely
with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several records were tied or set on Thursday May 2nd:
SITE       OBSERVED TEMP      PREVIOUS RECORD
Altoona         87F             87 in 1954
Harrisburg      90F             88 in 1913
State College   ??*             86 in 1938
Williamsport    89F             89 in 2018

*Official report from State College will be available Friday
 morning.

May 2nd was also the first 90F day at Harrisburg. It is the
13th earliest 90F day on record. The earliest 90F day occurred
on April 17th in 1896 and 2002. The average first 90F day is
June 1st.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Colbert
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff