640
FXUS63 KDDC 271706
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1206 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight
  across central Kansas and as far west as Ness City and Dodge
  City.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for this
  afternoon across the southwest corner of Kansas

- Generally warm weather is forecast through next week, with
  highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

- There are chances for thunderstorms mid to late next week,
  with best chances over central Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mesoscale Discussion

Severe thunderstorms are well underway across portions of
western and northwest OK, moving northeast towards the far
southeast zones of our CWA. Given these storms have already
produced severe hail up to the size of golf balls, and will
remain in a highly favorable environment characterized by
2500-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE and 45-55 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, they
will continue to pose a severe hail and wind gust risk as they
propagate northeast.

A secondary area of severe thunderstorm development appears
possible later this afternoon along a N-S oriented dryline
located just east of US-283 as latest HREF suggests isolated to
scattered supercells will initiate around 3-5pm CDT. Strong
instability and deep-layer shear will support a large hail and
damaging wind gust risk. That said, the combination of anvil
debris and thunderstorm outflow spreading northwest from the
convection over OK may cause storms to struggle or prevent them
entirely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A strong upper level disturbance will approach the plains today.
Ahead of the system, low level moisture was advecting
northwestward into south central Kansas. This westward push of
moisture will come to a halt by 12z, with the western edge of
the moisture constituting a surface dry line from near Dodge
City north to Ness City. Surface low pressure will develop over
western Kansas, with a warm front extending northeast from the
low along the I-70 corridor by mid afternoon. The low level
shear profile will be greatly enhanced along the warm front, and
this is where the best chance of tornadoes should be. By 00z, a
low level jet will strengthen as the main upper level trough
approaches, and this will result in stronger low level shear
developing southward to include much of central Kansas. There
may be two periods of storms, one developing along the dryline
and then moving northeast and crossing the warm front, possibly
becoming tornadic. Then later this evening, another round of
storms is possible if diurnal cooling is not too pronounced.
These storms would also contain very large hail and possibly
tornadoes. However, all this said, there is a plausible scenario
that could play out that would greatly inhibit high-end severe
storms across Kansas; namely, many of the convective allowing
models develop elevated storms over west Texas by 12z and then
progress this convection eastward and northeastward across
southwest Oklahoma and then into central Oklahoma by early to
mid afternoon. Given the southerly low level flow, any cold
outflow from these storms would be advected to the north,
possibly resulting in cooler and drier air over central and
southwest Kansas. Some moisture recovery could occur late
(toward 7 pm and onward); but by this time the surface
temperatures would have cooled into the upper 60s. We will not
know the impact of any southern plains, elevated t-storm
activity until mid morning at the earliest. Thus, this
discussion gives two scenarios but doesn`t provide a solution as
of yet. The Storm Prediction Center indicates 10% chances of a
significant tornado within 25 miles of a point confined to a
line from eastern Ellis county to eastern Pratt county. But this
could change in later outlooks (either lessening the threat or
increasing it depending on low level air mass recovery) and
longitude of storm initiation.

Another area of thunderstorms may form over extreme western
Kansas in a corridor of moist and cool upslope flow on the cool
side of the aforementioned warm front. Easterly low level winds
and south to southwesterly mid level winds would yield a
favorable hodograph for rotating, low topped storms, with
possibly a small tornado or two, along with some marginally
severe hail. However, by the time storms form, the warm front
may be north of our forecast area (north of Hamilton
county).Thus, the most favored area for severe in the upslope
region is from extreme northern Hamilton county and points
northward. This severe threat is also conditional since the cool
air north of the front may inhibit severe convection all
together. Also, low level moisture will be marginal in this area
with dewpoints only in the 40s.

Drier and slightly cooler air will sweep across southwest Kansas
Sunday, with highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest to mid
70s across south central Kansas. South winds will return Monday
as surface troughing forms in the lee of the Rockies, resulting
in highs in the upper 70s. A strong shortwave trough will
traverse the central plains Tuesday, pushing a frontal boundary
through southwest Kansas. Thunderstorms will likely develop as
the associated front encounters the low level moisture, but
this will probably not occur until the front gets into eastern
Kansas, with most of central and southwest Kansas remaining dry
Tuesday evening. The front will stall out by Tuesday night and
probably return north as a warm front by Wednesday given the
resumption of upper level troughing over the Rockies. The
nocturnal low level jet may interact with low level moisture and
the thermal gradient to bring a few thunderstorms to central
Kansas starting Wednesday night. It is too early to tell if any
of these could be severe. The upper level trough will slowly
progress eastward through Thursday, possibly bringing additional
rounds of thunderstorms to southwest and central Kansas. From a
probabilistic viewpoint, the ECMWF and GEM ensemble means
indicate 30-40 percent chances for greater than .5" of rain
across central Kansas, with less than 10% across far western
Kansas. Many of the individual ensemble members from both models
show clustering at lower rain amounts between a quarter and a
half inch across central Kansas in the Wednesday to Friday time
frame.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 713 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

GEFS, ENS and GEPS were all in decent agreement this morning
with an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest Monday
morning moving east into the Northern Plains during the first
half of the work week which will allow improving westerly
downslope flow to develop over the Central Rockies. This will
result in a nice warming trend early next week and given the dry
conditions across southwest Kansas would not be surprised to see
temperatures end up being warmer than what the latest guidance
suggests, especially on Tuesday given the location of the warm
wedge of 850mb temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front.
Highs ranging from 90 to 95 degrees is not out of the question
south of the Arkansas river given the mean 850mb forecast
temperatures at 00z Wednesday. The latest NBM probability for
highs 90 degrees or higher south of the Arkansas river ranges from
50-90% with the highest chances along the Oklahoma border.

For Wednesday through Friday, while specific details are not
worth detailing at this point, the approach of this wave and an
associated front will bring the next chance of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across central Kansas
and a small portion of southwest Kansas late afternoon through
this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of KHYS and
KDDC. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail through late
evening. Low level stratus is then forecast to develop along
and behind a cold front pushing through western Kansas overnight,
resulting in possible MVFR/IFR cigs in vicinity of KHYS, KGCK,
and KDDC generally after 03-05Z. Southerly winds around 15 to
25kt with gusts up to 30kt are expected to develop this afternoon
behind a warm front lifting northward through much of southwest
Kansas while northeasterly winds around 10 to 20 are expected
to persist north of the boundary, including in vicinity of KHYS.
Northerly winds around 15 to 30kt are forecast to develop behind
the aforementioned cold front moving through western Kansas later
this evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Springer
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson