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000
FXXX12 KWNP 130031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was an impulsive
C8.9 at 12/1755 UTC from a Region just beyond the SE limb near S10.
Slight growth was observed in Regions 3633 (S08W10, Cso/beta) and 3634
(N26W05, Dsi/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable
or in decay.

The faint, halo CME from a filament eruption near S16W20 at 12/0020 UTC
was analyzed with an arrival time late on 14 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 13-15 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 15 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged
from 389-473 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component
was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
A weakly enhanced solar wind environment is expected on 13 Apr due to CH
HSS influences. Solar wind conditions are expected to become further
enhanced on 14 Apr, through midday 15 Apr, due to the anticipated
arrival of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr in addition to continued CH HSS
influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 13 Apr due to CH HSS influences.
Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 14 Apr, followed by periods
of active conditions on 15 Apr, due to the arrival and passage of CMEs
from 11 and 12 Apr and CH HSS influences.