589
ACUS01 KWNS 291953
SWODY1
SPC AC 291952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across
south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower
Michigan.

...20Z Update...
Overall forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Only adjustment to the
previous outlook was to trim behind the line in southern MS.

Ongoing line across southwest IN will likely continue
eastward/northeastward. Widespread clouds have limited heating
downstream across IN and OH, which has limited buoyancy as well.
This limited buoyancy should temper the overall severe potential,
although a damaging gust or two is possible if storms briefly
intensify.

..Mosier.. 04/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/

...LA/MS/AL...
A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern
LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore.  The
leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into
central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the
east.  Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is
expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward
southwest AL this evening.  Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this
area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind
fields.  This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds
with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather
isolated.

...Southeast Lower MI...
Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over
southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light
precipitation approaching from the southwest.  Several morning CAM
solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along
the leading edge of this cloud deck.  Storms will sweep across the
area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a
risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a
surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area.

...South TX...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across
south TX, ahead of a weak front.  The coverage of thunderstorms is
expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm
that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours.

$$