998
ACUS01 KWNS 011627
SWODY1
SPC AC 011625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST
TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe
thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central
Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and
northwest/west-central Texas.

...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle...
Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a
remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward
through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK.  It is
unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon,
or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK.
Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from
southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and
interact with the remnant boundary.  Supercells capable of very
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this
corridor through the early evening.  There is a chance of a strong
tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to
increase tornado probabilities at this time.

...West TX...
Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX,
leading to scattered intense storm development.  Initial discrete
supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes,
but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance,
which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward
through the evening.

...Central TX today and tonight...
A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central
TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s.  Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where
sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote
organized/supercell structures.  Given the abundant low-level
theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is
possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds.

Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and
track into central TX.  A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind
max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of
damaging winds overnight.

...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight...
Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark
over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough.  This activity will spread eastward overnight, with
sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in
the stronger cores.

..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/01/2024

$$