131
ACUS02 KWNS 131713
SWODY2
SPC AC 131711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the
Southeast.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley
Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z.
Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the
Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will
likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of
northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward
progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary
surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front
into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico.

...Southeastern States...
Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day
storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However,
the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite
supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional
tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the
early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion
along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from
the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could
develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more
isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast.

To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper
trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY
across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible
with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg.

..Jewell.. 05/13/2024

$$