102
FXUS63 KEAX 012337
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunder through this evening.
  One or two strong storms may be possible this evening into
  tonight with hail the primary concerns.

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday.
  River flooding will remain a concern.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunder continue to persist this
afternoon across portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
This activity has maintained within the re-established warm sector
ahead of a weak mid-level short wave lifting east-northeast off the
western high plains of CO/KS. 18Z surface analysis suggests a diffuse
warm front stretches from north central Kansas to north of the
Missouri River. Compared to the earlier convection in central
Kansas, as this activity has advanced east, it`s run into a less
favorable environment, with only lower to mid-40s dew points to work
with.

This evening, scattered showers and thunder will continue across the
region, with some greater focus across far northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri as the LLJ increases through 06Z.
Additionally, with the push of a cold front off the Panhandle of
Nebraska, guidance continues to develop a complex/line of storms
building southeastward overnight across the Sandhills through
midnight. Observing MCS maintenance, short-range solutions suggest
shear/cold pool balance will maintain to some degree as it moves
east, arriving into a favorable environment across eastern Kansas
through the early morning hours. Not a traditional MCS environment,
but close enough to suggest a line of thunderstorms will move into
the area through sunrise tomorrow morning and may be capable of
strong to severe winds. For the remainder of Thursday, it`s looking
like a rather rainy day, with persisting showers and thunderstorms
as the cold front and associated upper short wave move through the
region through the day. Widespread rainfall amounts tonight through
Thursday will range from 1.00 to 1.50 inches. As always, locally
heavier amounts may exist within thunderstorms.

Rain is expected to clear out from west to east by Friday morning,
with high pressure allowing for a rather rain free day. Winds will
shift back to the southeast and south through the evening,
increasing return flow ahead of an advancing H500 open short wave.
With increased ascent ahead, shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase across Kansas into Missouri through Saturday morning. Mid-
range solutions shift precipitation eastward of the region late
Saturday afternoon and evening.

The forecast gets a bit more complicated into Sunday, with the
development of a large western trough over the Inter-Mountain West.
An open short wave ejects off the southern Plains Sunday, lifting
into the Ozarks by the evening. There`s some variability of how far
north any precipitation will spread from this compact open trough.

The greater focus for the extended is the evolution of the
aforementioned western trough. It becomes negatively tilted rather
quickly through Monday, with the H500 center pivoting over WY into
eastern MT by Monday afternoon. The elongated surface front
stretches from the Dakotas through the southern Plains. An eye will
be kept on the evolution of this system over the next few days.
Given synoptic setup, there`s increasing potential for thunderstorms
across the plains and into our area by the evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Cloud cover continues to increase as system approaches from
west. Additional showers may develop this evening. Stronger
thunderstorm activity is now more favored for the overnight
hours into early morning Thursday. Ceilings will bounce between
VFR and MVFR with passing showers and storms. Wind gusts around
20 kts expected, and may be a touch faster with shower/storm
activity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Krull