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000
FXUS63 KEAX 192018
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures expected through
  the weekend. Near-freezing temperatures are forecast tonight
  and Saturday night for far northern Missouri.

- Near normal temperatures return on Monday and continue through
  the middle of next week.

- Several chances for precipitation arrive next week beginning
  Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

As high pressure continues to build into the area from the west, a
quiet forecast is expected for the next few days. With the surface
high to the west, cooler and drier air from the north is expected to
move into the area, keeping temperatures below seasonal averages
this weekend. Winds will be fairly weak with the loosened pressure
gradient. Tonight there is a potential for near freezing
temperatures for the northern parts of Missouri near the
Missouri/Iowa/Nebraska border. There is a chance for some minimal
localized frost; however, forecast surface winds remain a little too
high to expect widespread frost for these areas. Hence, we will not
issue a frost advisory for far northern Missouri for tonight. Of a
little greater concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds
will be lighter Saturday night, and skies are expected to be mostly
clear by late in the night. These conditions are more favorable for
slightly colder temperatures, so frost/freeze headlines might be in
the cards for this period. However, with near-freezing temperatures
tonight and uncertainty in the sky cover and temperature forecast
tomorrow night, will hold off on issuing headlines for tomorrow
night at this time as well. The attendant weak system that clears
skies by Saturday night will keep conditions dry through the end of
the weekend.

Monday, winds will shift to the south as shortwave ridging moves in
from the west. Corresponding warm advection will give us just enough
to return temperatures to daily normals. A stronger northwest-flow
system will approach the central Plains by Monday night and Tuesday.
With stronger large-scale lift and improved low-level thermodynamic
profiles, chances of precipitation are higher than the preceding
system. However, given the source region of the upper system and
timing discrepancies among model guidance (e.g., GFS considerably
faster than the CMC), kept probabilities of precipitation in
the 25 to 50 percent range for the Monday night and Tuesday
morning period. Any resulting precipitation will be light
(generally under a quarter inch across the CWA). Wednesday, dry
conditions return as ridging briefly builds into the area. By
Thursday, precipitation chances return as the large-scale
pattern changes to a southwest-flow setup, and a series of
shortwave troughs move into the region. Pattern recognition
suggests potential for severe weather will be increasing at
times late next week into the following weekend, with extended
model and statistical guidance both indicative of this trend.
High and low temperatures are expected to trend above seasonal
averages by the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain for the duration of the TAF
period. A mid level deck of clouds is expected to form overnight
with the passage of a weak system. Winds will remain fairly weak out
of the north with high pressure to our east.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier