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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 221505
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for SIXTEEN SPRINGS RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
905 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
It will warmer today beneath sunny to mostly sunny skies. Drier
conditions will also arrive with the warmth with min RH values
dropping into the mid to upper teens. Winds will start off light
and variable but will gradually shift to the west or southwest
becoming west later this afternoon, topping out around 10 MPH with
gusts up to 20 MPH. Excellent venting is expected this afternoon.
For tomorrow, it will be warmer, drier, and a nudge breezier.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds becoming south winds 6 to 8 mph,
    shifting to the southwest late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (116700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (163100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      28     28     23
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............60     65     71     73
RH..............30     24     20     17
20 ft wind......VRBL4  S 8    S 8    SW 11
20 ft wind gust.8      16     16     20
Mix hgt (ft)....11600  11600  11700  11700
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 9   W 16   W 16
Haines index....4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..117    117    163    163
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (121900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (8300 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      4      5      6      6      12
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............70     62     58     55     53     50
RH..............20     30     39     45     50     56
20 ft wind......W 10   W 10   W 7    W 8    SW 8   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.18     18     13     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....7600   7600   500    500    600    600
Transport wind..W 16   W 16   W 17   W 17   SW 19  SW 19
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..122    122    8      8      9      9
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (92200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (178000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (192300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........6         4         4         4
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............49        61        72        78
RH..............61        32        16        11
20 FT wind......W 8G17    W 10G20   W 12G22   W 12G23
Mix hgt (ft)....5100      5100      9500      9800
Transport wind..W 20      W 20      W 21      W 23
Haines index....3         4         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..92        92        178       192
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
West winds around 9 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 17 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...ADC
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411735.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov