499
FNUS74 KEPZ 021930
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Collins Park RX...GIla National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Friday and Saturday will see relatively light winds for this time
of the year, but RH values will drop below 15% in the afternoon with
recovery overnight into the 30-40 percent range. Saturday afternoon
the winds will increase 5-10kts compared to Friday with gusts near
30mph possible in the afternoon. It is worth noting that a weather
system will push through Saturday which will increase 20ft winds to 20+
mph with gusts in the 30-35mph range. This combined with RH values
below 15 percent will create critical to extreme fire weather
conditions.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (143500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (175500
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........1      1      5      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     62     67     69     69
RH..............29     20     16     13     12
20 ft wind......W 6    W 6    W 8   W 10   W 11
20 ft wind gust.14     14     18     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   9200   9200   10300  10300
Transport wind..W 12   SW 14  SW 14  W 17   W 17
Haines index....3      4      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..44     144    144    176    176
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 5 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (127500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      7      13     13     18
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     57     52     48     45     43
RH..............13     22     29     34     39     43
20 ft wind......SW 7   SW 7  SW 6   W 2    W 2    W 0
20 ft wind gust.20     20     12     6      6      2
Mix hgt (ft)....8500   8500   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 16   W 16   W 8    W 8    SW 5   SW 5
Haines index....5      4      3      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..128    128    3      3      3      3
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 15 mph with
                    gusts to around 28 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......12400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 6 mph increasing to southwest 18
                    to 24 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44800 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (214800 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........15        16        23        8
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............42        55        65        70
RH..............44        28        14        11
20 FT wind......SE 5      S 7    SW 12G25  SW 15G28
Mix hgt (ft)....5000      5000      11800     12400
Transport wind..S 6       S 6       S 18      SW 24
Haines index....4         4         6         6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..45        45        215       247
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...BARHAM
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412708.4/EPZ
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov