Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 191722
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
122 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across N
GA late tonight and early Friday morning.
- More thunderstorms will accompany a cold front sinking into N GA
this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may be strong.
A large upper low will continue to march E across Ontario and S
Hudson Bay. Over the local area, upper NW flow will become more
zonal today and tonight. At the surface, a cold front from the OH
Valley to the Arklatex region will gradually sink SE into N GA this
afternoon and evening.
After a lull in convection late Thursday evening, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms have developed across N AL during the
past couple of hours. With little in the way of dynamic support,
this activity is being supported by low-level convergence and fairly
decent nighttime instability. Activity was initially moving almost
due E, but now appears to be moving more ESE to SW. Instability
appears to be slowly waning with increasing CIN. However, expect at
least shower activity to hold together as this convection moves
toward the Atlanta metro area, and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible.
A broken line of stronger thunderstorms is ongoing along and just
ahead of the surface front, with the most organized storms over W
TN. This activity, along with leading outflows, will continue to
march SE toward N GA through the day. The models are not handling
ongoing convection particularly well, but still expect scattered
storms to enter N GA by early afternoon. The extent of these storms
will likely be affected by how worked over the atmosphere is from
early morning convection along with persistence of residual cloud
cover. A few storms could be strong. Wind shear will not be
particularly strong. The main threats from thunderstorms will be
gusty winds and hail.
Cooler air will begin to filter into the area from the N early
Saturday morning. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to
range from near 70 across the extreme N to near 90 SE of Macon.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and S of the cold
front generally near and S of Macon, mainly Saturday afternoon.
SEC
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Highlights:
-Another round of rain expected Sunday with thunder chances
confined to south GA.
-Drier and cooler conditions return next week.
Lingering showers and thunderstorms may still be present at the
start of the long term period (Saturday night) with a frontal
boundary draped across south-central GA. A weak midlevel impulse
will move across the Southeast on Sunday accompanied by an
additional wave of moisture. This will ramp up rain chances during
the day Sunday for much of North and Central Georgia. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to back off on sufficient instability
and forecast soundings indicate generally stable conditions setting
up across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. Thus,
elected to keep any thunder chances confined to far south-central GA
(south of a line from Columbus to Macon). A secondary more prominent
shortwave will drop south late Sunday accompanied by a cold front
which will bring an end to precipitation from west to east. Much
drier and cooler air will filter in behind as surface high pressure
builds across much of the south and eastern U.S. Dry conditions will
prevail through most of the work week with rain potentially
creeping back into the forecast in time for the weekend.
Cooler conditions can be expected on Sunday as a result of clouds
and rain with high temperatures largely in the upper 50s to 60s (70s
across extreme southeast GA). In the wake of the cold frontal
passage, temperatures on Monday will be in the 60s with low
temperatures 40s. Temperatures will moderate through the week with
forecast high temperatures climbing back into the 70s and low 80s
across south-central GA with forecast low temperatures in the 50s
(and 40s in the NE GA mountains).
07
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Isold thunder possible in and around ATL this afternoon. Have
added a tempo group for this afternoon/evening. Winds will remain
on the west side. Some patchy few/sct MVFR possible towards 12Z,
higher potential for bkn if it actually rains at ATL. Sct-bkn cu
around 035-050 tomorrow afternoon with any widespread precip after
00Z Sun.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-med confidence for tsra at ATL this afternoon. High confidence
remaining elements.
NListemaa
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 62 83 54 61 / 20 20 60 80
Atlanta 61 79 54 60 / 20 20 70 80
Blairsville 55 71 47 57 / 20 10 50 70
Cartersville 58 74 49 58 / 20 10 60 70
Columbus 65 86 57 65 / 10 40 70 80
Gainesville 61 79 54 60 / 20 20 60 80
Macon 65 87 59 67 / 20 40 50 80
Rome 58 74 49 60 / 20 10 50 60
Peachtree City 61 81 52 61 / 20 20 70 80
Vidalia 67 89 65 76 / 10 40 40 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...NListemaa