Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FNUS72 KFFC 150844
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for 108...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
444 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning, Tim. A warm day is expected at the burn site under
mostly clear skies, with temperatures expected to climb climb to
over 80 by 1 PM this afternoon, ultimately reaching a high of 86
degrees. While SW winds will begin to push moisture towards the
area, it appears unlikely to overcome the afternoon sun and strong
mixing in central Georgia. As such, I elected to favor lower
dewpoints and relative humidity values in this forecast. RH values
at the burn site will start the morning between 85-90 percent at
ignition time, but decrease quickly through the morning as
temperatures warm. RH values are forecast to drop below 40 percent
by noon and down to a minimum of 25 percent around 4-5 PM this
afternoon. 20 ft winds at ignition time are forecast to be W at 3
mph, increasing to 6 mph by 9 AM this morning. 20 ft winds will
shift to SW at 7-8 mph by 1 PM and through the remainder of the
afternoon. Transport winds will be W at 5 mph at ignition time,
quickly increasing through the morning until becoming W at 13 mph
from 11-2 PM. After 2 PM, transport winds will shift to SW at 13-15
mph. These transport winds, combined with mixing heights over 5500
ft, will contribute to excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoon,
with ADI values as high as 96.

Winds at the burn site will diminish after sunset. 20 ft winds will
remain SW, but decrease to around 3 mph after 9 PM this evening.
Transport winds will similarly remain SW and decrease to 3-5 mph
after 8 PM. In spite of the light winds, RH values are forecast to
remain under 85 percent through the early morning hours, which
should inhibit any fog formation at the burn site. Please feel free
to contact us if you have any further questions or concerns.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Dewpoint............52 decreasing to 46 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 6 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (74200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 96 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   1   2   1   1   1   1   0   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  63  70  75  78  81  84  85  85  85
Dewpoint........54  53  53  52  50  48  47  46  46  45
RH..............88  68  56  46  37  32  28  26  25  25
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.7   9   9   9   10  12  13  13  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.7 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   8   10  13  13  13  13  14  15  15
LVORI...........5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............5   8   25  38  51  71  80  88  96  96
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   7   19  25  34  52  61  65  71  74
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Dewpoint............48 increasing to 50 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest around
                    5 mph late in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (55900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................59 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9   5   6   11  5   4   7   6   16  22  21  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............83  80  75  71  68  65  64  63  62  60  59  57
Dewpoint........46  47  50  51  50  51  51  51  51  50  51  51
RH..............27  31  42  49  53  60  63  64  67  70  74  80
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   3   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.12  9   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  8   5   3   3   5   5   5   5   3   3   3
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
ADI.............59  4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..56  19  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Dewpoint............53 increasing to 56 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then decreasing to 52 late in
                    the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph shifting to the south 12
                    to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (50100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 54 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  45  37  44  58  64  61  53  50  52  57  59
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  57  58  63  69  73  77  79  81  82  82  83
Dewpoint........52  52  53  55  57  58  56  54  52  52  52  53
RH..............82  83  83  75  65  58  49  42  37  35  35  35
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   3   5   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.5   5   3   5   5   6   8   9   12  13  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.0 3.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   3   6   7   9   10  12  14  15  15
LVORI...........5   5   5   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............1   3   3   4   8   13  23  41  52  50  54  54
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   3   7   9   17  32  40  42  48  50
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

$$
Forecaster...King
Requested by...Tim Kolnik
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410750.0/FFC
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy.kolnik@usda.gov
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