309
FXUS64 KFWD 111552
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1052 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Monday night/

The axis of a mid-level ridge will move east of the region today
in response to an approaching shortwave currently rotating near
the Four Corners region. Middle and upper level clouds will
increase across the region as Pacific moisture is pulled into
the lifting shortwave. Some light showers and isolated storms
have already developed across the western zones this morning but
rainfall has been light due to the layer of dry air generally
below 700 mb. This sub-cloud layer will slowly moisten through the
afternoon resulting in more rain reaching the ground. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible due to sufficient mid-level
instability as shown in the 12Z KFWD sounding, but lightning will
be the only notable hazard. The increase in cloud cover will keep
afternoon highs generally in the 70s but a few spots may briefly
reach 80.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
night with broad large scale ascent in place. Lift will be maximized
on Sunday with the core of the shortwave moving towards the Central
Plains and a warm front lifting slowly northward through the
Southern Plains. Ample moisture will be in place when the lift
arrives, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
across the CWA. PWs closer to 2 inches will be common across
Central Texas and this is where some rainfall amounts will exceed
2 inches. Many of these areas saw heavy rainfall and flooding
this past week and it won`t take much to cause more flooding
problems. We are likely going to need a Flood Watch for some
locations generally south of the I-20 corridor so we will be
working with surrounding offices and hydrologists through the
afternoon to define the watch area and issuing one with the
afternoon package. The bulk of the rain will gradually shift
northeast through the afternoon Sunday with the lifting warm front
but additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday night through
Monday along and ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms will
be strong to severe with a threat for hail and gusty winds. Storm
chances will end from northwest to southeast Monday night with the
passage of the cold front.

Extensive cloud cover and rain-cooled air will keep highs Sunday
generally in the lower and middle 70s. Lingering clouds Sunday
night will keep temperatures from falling substantially with
mainly middle and upper 60s. Decreasing clouds behind the cold
front Monday will offset weak cold air advection, allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to the middle 80s.
Temperatures Monday night will be cooler ranging from the middle
50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/
/Monday Through Late Next Week/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
along a weak cold front on Monday with the bulk of this activity
expected to be along and east of I-35. Now that we`re getting
within range of high-res guidance, latest model data continues to
trend increasingly pessimistic towards another potential for severe
storms on Monday. The latest NAM continues to be the slowest
among deterministic guidance members with the movement of the
front and depicts a more moist and unstable environment ahead of
the front. This environment would certainly support at least a few
severe storms, though the exact evolution of this convection and
areal coverage of storms are still a bit uncertain at this time.
These details will continue to be ironed out this weekend as
additional data comes in, so be sure to check back for any
updates.

This round of convection will exit the area Monday evening,
marking the beginning of our next rain-free period. Less cloud
cover will result in warmer temperatures in the low to mid 80s
Tuesday afternoon, but drier air behind the front should keep the
warmth rather pleasant. Our rain-free period will be quite brief,
as our next system is progged to arrive Wednesday as a shortwave
trough swings into the region. A typical dryline and cold front
set up will likely bring yet another potential for severe storms
Wednesday afternoon. Additional rounds of showers and storms are
possible through Thursday, and heavy rainfall will result in
continued flooding concerns. Make sure you keep an eye on the
forecast this week as our active spring weather continues.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

The only aviation weather concern through the evening will be
isolated thunderstorms associated with an approaching shortwave.
Coverage will be enough to warrant VCTS at all TAF sites by 21Z
with most storms dissipating a couple of hours after sunset.
Otherwise, extensive middle and upper level clouds will remain
over the region through the evening. Higher storm chances will
arrive Sunday morning, continuing off and on through much of the
afternoon.

Mid-level clouds will gradually lower through afternoon but
remain above 3000 ft until closer to sunrise Sunday. Low end MVFR
to IFR ceilings will accompany the rain on Sunday along with
temporary reductions to visibility in the heavier showers and
storms.

An east to southeast wind will remain generally below 12 knots
this afternoon through Sunday.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  65  72  67  83 /  40  30 100  60  20
Waco                78  66  73  68  83 /  30  40  90  50  30
Paris               79  62  72  63  80 /  20  10  80  80  40
Denton              78  62  71  64  81 /  40  30  90  60  20
McKinney            78  63  72  66  81 /  30  30  90  70  20
Dallas              80  65  72  66  84 /  40  30  90  60  20
Terrell             78  64  72  66  82 /  40  30  90  70  30
Corsicana           79  67  74  69  83 /  30  30  90  60  30
Temple              79  66  75  69  84 /  20  40  80  50  30
Mineral Wells       76  62  72  65  82 /  40  40 100  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$