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000
FXUS65 KGGW 152123
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
323 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Pattern shift to colder weather begins tomorrow.

- Strong winds and dry weather will bring critical fire weather
  concerns, a Red Flag Warning has been issued.

- Strong winds have resulted in Lake Wind Advisory being issued
  over the next couple days.

- A few isolated rain and snow showers will be possible over the
  next few days, QPF amounts are expected to be low.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cold front moves through tonight which along with an upper level
trough that will bring an end to our above average temperatures.
As the front moves through it will bring in strong winds and low
humidity that have required a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow to be
issued. A Lake Wind Advisory will be maintained over the next
couple days for same strong winds. On Wednesday, cold air
advection will drop our temperatures back to below mid April
averages and will help temper fire weather concerns as it improves
relative humidity. Precipitation chances and QPF amounts continue
to drop over the next few days with this run. Only seeing about
20-50% POPS so impacts from precipitation continue to trend
downward.

A brief ridge builds over the weekend bringing a slight warming
trend but another upper level Low may bring another chance of
precipitation by the beginning of next week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence on high winds and low humidity, medium to low
confidence on POPs and amounts. Medium confidence for upcoming
ridge over the weekend, low confidence on next system moving in
Sunday night into Monday.

-Bernhart


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2130Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR-MVFR

DISCUSSION: Cold front moves in tonight bringing strong winds and
a pattern shift to colder weather. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible through 12Z mainly over KGDV and KSDY.
Another round of rain and snow showers moves into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
WIND: E 10-15kts, shifting NW 10-20kts by 12Z, increasing to NW
20-30kts, gusts 35-40kts by 18Z.

-Bernhart



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Northern Valley
and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern
Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River
Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow