Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
000
FXUS63 KGID 100955
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
455 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A weak passing disturbance could bring some very light showers
or sprinkles to parts of the area this afternoon through early
evening, but no precipitation accumulation is expected.
- Fire weather will be the main concern through the weekend, and
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday afternoon and
evening across the entire forecast area.
- Another mild day expected this afternoon with temperatures
near 70, with a brief dip in temperatures closer to 60 behind
a cold front for Thursday. 80s likely over the upcoming
weekend!
- The next chance for meaningful precipitation returns Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. Severe weather will be possible
mainly Monday afternoon and evening...with more details to
come over the coming days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
A few high clouds have been noted across the region overnight,
although temperatures have been slow to drop off as light
westerly wind persists across the area this morning. Expect a
fairly nice day across the region today as westerly breezes
ahead of a weak cold front will allow temperatures to climb into
the upper 60s to near 70. As this front near the area later
today, expect a few showers or sprinkles to develop across our
northwest and spread towards the Tri-cities around the time of
peak heating. While the NAM is a bit more aggressive than the
HRRR or the RAP, most short term models try to spit out some
spotty light precip, so maintained some small pops and sprinkles
in the forecast for this afternoon, although little to no
accumulation is anticipated. Whatever precip does develop,
however, will be short lived and should rapidly dissipate around
sunset...with a modest surge in northwesterly winds expected
this evening and into the overnight hours behind this front.
Given the modest westerly winds and dry air ahead of this front
today, could see a few hours of elevated to near critical fire
weather concerns later today, but this window will be brief and
much less significant than Thursday, when dry air filtering in
behind the aforementioned front reaches the local area along
with continued gusty northwest winds. This will likely end up
being a critical fire weather day across the area, and a fire
weather watch remains in effect for the time being from noon
until 8 PM CDT tomorrow despite the slightly cooler temps
(upper 50s and lower 60s) expected for Thursday afternoon.
Thereafter temperatures will begin a nice warm-up in to the
weekend, with temperatures peaking in the 80s both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons. While winds will not be overly breezy over
the upcoming weekend, they will be in the 15 to 25 MPH range,
which combined with RH values near or below 25 percent, will
result in continued fire weather concerns across the local area.
Late in the weekend, the focus will shift to a fairly strong
upper level low across central California which will cross the
Rockies on Monday, bringing a chance for some meaningful
precipitation (and strong to severe thunderstorm) activity to
the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Currently, most of the
local area is already highlighted in a 15% chance for severe
weather from the SPC on Monday, and given the good shear and
potential CAPE values of 1-1.5K J/KG, this will be a day to
focus on as it gets closer as all forms of severe weather may
eventually become possible.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with
light winds (mainly southwesterly) overnight shifting and
becoming northwest near 10 KTS during the morning hours. The
pressure gradient should tighten during the day Wednesday, with
increasing northwest winds during the afternoon...surging with a
cold front around 10/00Z as it crosses the terminals. While
there will be some mid level clouds around, little more than a
sprinkle is expected at either terminal with the front and did
not include any mention of a SHRA or VCSH in the 09/06Z TAFs.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi