Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240430
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions expected on Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds and even an isolated tornado, may develop
  along and east of Highway 25 Sunday afternoon.

- Very strong north winds expected in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage late Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Accumulating snow and blowing snow possible Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

- Dangerous travel conditions likely along the I-70 corridor in
  far northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado late Sunday into
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

After reviewing 18z data and latest 00z (NAM), there is enough
confidence to introduce a High Wind Watch to areas generally
along and west of Highway 27 (except Dundy and Cheyenne KS) from
03z-18z Monday. The 00z MET guidance has come up in its
sustained wind speeds, approaching that of the latest and prior
runs of the MAV guidance. Presently, wind gusts up to 65 are
anticipated in the Watch area.

Additionally, the latest model visibility forecasts are honing
in on lowering visibilities to around 1/2 mile or even less
within the wraparound snow thats expected to develop within the
axis of stronger winds. Will await the 00z GFS/ECMWF models
and let the incoming shift know about the likely need for a
winter weather headline of some type.

For tonight and tomorrow, stratus is again expected to impact
the area tonight, slowly lifting east and northeast during the
day tomorrow. This will impact the high temperature forecast.
Presently, high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle
50s to upper 60s. If the stratus hangs around longer than
currently expected, these readings would be optimistic.

Still expecting some rain showers to move across the area
tonight, exiting from west to east Sunday morning. We`ll then be
in a precipitation lull until early to mid afternoon when
showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Synoptic Pattern: A complex upper level trough presently
situated along the Pacific Coast will amplify as it progresses
eastward across the Intermountain West (tonight), Rockies (Sun)
and central CONUS (Mon).

Feature of Interest 1: An upper level low situated along the
Pacific Northwest coast at 19Z will dig S-SSE through CA
(tonight-Sun) into northern Mexico (Sun night).

Feature of Interest 2: Potent shortwave energy situated
offshore central CA early this afternoon will move ashore
southern CA (tonight) and rapidly track eastward across the
Desert Southwest (Sun morning).. then lift ENE into the Central
Plains (Sun aft/eve).

Overview: A developing lee cyclone in Colorado (this afternoon)
will rapidly intensify during the day on Sunday (12-21Z).. as
Feature 2 approaches from the WSW. Guidance suggests a minimum
central pressure ~978-983 mb in vicinity of the CO-KS border by
~00Z Mon. The aforementioned cyclone is progged to track E and
NE into far northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska by mid-day
(18Z) Monday and Iowa by 00Z Tuesday. Strong low-level northerly
flow on the western periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone will
`tap` a Canadian Arctic airmass (over Alberta/
Saskatchewan/Manitoba).. advecting it southward through the
Dakotas into the Central Plains late Sun-Sun night.

Hazard (Fire Weather): Breezy to strong (30-40 mph) SW winds,
well above normal temperatures and dry conditions (antecedent
and otherwise) on the eastern periphery of the intensifying,
eastward advancing lee cyclone will foster dangerous fire
weather conditions across much of the area on Sunday.

Hazard (Severe Storms): Convection allowing guidance such as
the 18Z HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that scattered convection will
blossom over portions of far northwest KS ~20-21Z Sunday
afternoon. Forecast soundings /thermodynamic profiles/ suggest
that convection in the Goodland CWA will largely be high-based
in nature.. and that large hail/damaging wind are the primary
hazards.

Hazard (Strong N Winds): Strong northerly winds will develop
late Sun aft/eve as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses
east toward central KS.. and an Arctic airmass /cold front/
surges southeastward through the area. While virtually all
guidance indicates that strong wind will be present, they
continue to vary with regard to how strong. A number of factors
will influence the MSLP-H85 height gradient over the region,
including the location/intensity/motion/track of the surface low
and the magnitude of Arctic high pressure extending into the
region from the north -- evaporative cooling associated with
upstream precipitation over Nebraska/Dakotas may augment the
airmass (make it colder, increase surface pressure), for
example. At this time, expect sustained N winds ranging from
30-45 mph and gusts in the 55-65 mph range. Blowing dust may
well accompany the frontal passage.. given the abrupt nature of
the wind shift and very dry antecedent conditions. A High Wind
Warning may ultimately be necessary Sunday evening into Monday
morning.

Hazard (Snow/Blowing Snow): Precipitation is anticipated to
develop on the W and NW periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone as
it progresses ENE-NE from Kansas into Nebraska/Iowa Sunday
night into Monday. Precip magnitude/distribution will highly
depend upon the evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone, which..
in turn.. will highly depend upon the evolution of the
amplifying upper level trough progressing eastward into the
central CONUS -- and smaller scale wave interactions therein
(interactions between Feature 1 and Feature 2, in particular).
Solutions for the Tri-State area range anywhere from no
accumulating snow to 3-6" of snow. It should be reiterated that
*any* snow will further exacerbate already difficult travel
conditions assoc/w strong northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

At the start of the long term period, the upper low center is
situated over east-central Kansas, continuing to pull off
towards the east-northeast, resulting in a north-northwesterly
flow aloft for the area. As the backside of the trough moves
through, will see a few more waves of energy possibly allowing
for development of a few showers (generally a less than 20%
chance), Monday evening and again Tuesday evening-Wednesday
morning. At least some cloud cover will persist before the
upstream upper level ridge works its way eastward mid-week. This
will promote a warming/drying trend during the latter half of
the work week, once again increasing fire weather concerns. An
upper level shortwave and a surface low in the lee of the
Rockies are then forecast to move through the area Thursday
evening-Friday. With this, less than 15% chance for some rain
across far northern portions. Towards the end of the period,
model guidance depicts an upper level trough digging south along
the west coast, which will likely become the next system to
watch for next weekend into the following week. Temperatures
during the period continue below normal through Wednesday before
warming to above normal Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 10z
with winds from the south, gusting to around 30kts. From
11z-16z, sub VFR conditions are expected under stratus and maybe
some fog...winds continue from the south, gusting up to 30kts.
From 17z-23z, southerly winds continue gusting up to 25kts with
VFR conditions expected. After 00z, easterly winds around 11kts
at 00z shift to the north, increasing in speed through the rest
of the taf period, peaking with gusts around 40kts.
Thunderstorms will be possible from 00z-03z with a rain/snow mix
and stratus currently forecast around 03z, then all snow with
blowing snow and sub VFR conditions continuing through the rest
of the taf period.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 08z
with winds from the east-southeast, gusting 25-30kts. From
09z-22z, sub VFR cigs are expected with maybe some fog...winds
continue from the southeast gusting 25-30kts. From 23z-01z, sub
VFR cigs continue with an easterly wind gusting to 25kts.
Thunderstorms will be possible. From 01z-02z, VFR conditions are
anticipated with thunderstorms near the terminal. After 03z, sub
VFR conditions return was winds shift to the north, gusting up
to 35kts. Precipitation type will begin as liquid with
thunderstorms possible, changing over to a rain/snow mix after
about 05z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     KSZ013-027-041-042.
CO...High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     COZ090>092.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99/Trigg
SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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