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000
FXUS62 KGSP 241727
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front should stall to our south tonight and Thursday as
high pressure moves past to our north. The front will move back
northward on Friday and wash out across our area, but giving us a
cooler day because of clouds and a few showers. After that, expect a
warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high
pressure takes over.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday: No changes needed with this brief
forecast update. Isolated showers continue to be noted across
portions of the Piedmont as a weak front crosses the area.

Lowering cloud deck in association with the main frontal zone has
pushed into the NC mountains and will begin to spew further south
and east through the morning hours. Precip along the the boundary
has reached the immediate TN border and will overspread portions of
the mountains over the next few hours. Shortwave trough currently
resides over the Great Lakes region with the attendant frontal
boundary draped from the Great Lakes through the OH Valley and mid-
MS Valley. With surface high pressure set up shop just offshore the
Southeast Coast, weak southwesterly WAA will continue to filter into
the CFWA, ahead of the front. Expect increased cloud cover east of
the mountains by late morning into the early afternoon and
overspreading a good chunk of the area. The frontal boundary is
expected to sag south through the CFWA during peak heating, which
will help to generate a few showers along the boundary east of the
mountains. Coverage will be minimized due to the lack of forcing and
moisture as the better DPVA will reside north of the area, in the
vicinity of the parent low. CAMs still kick off some showers later
in the afternoon and in the evening for the CLT Metro and eastern
Upstate, which increases confidence enough to at least put a
mentionable PoP in these zones. Afternoon highs will run near-
normal, but could fluctuate by a few degrees depending on the extent
of cloud cover along the boundary as it pushes through the CFWA. The
boundary is expected to complete a full fropa by midnight tonight as
a continental surface high settles over the Upper Great Lakes region
and filters in a dry northerly wind behind the front. Cloud cover
will gradually scour out from north to south overnight, with mostly
clear skies for much of the area by daybreak Thursday. Overnight
lows are forecasted to run at or a few ticks below normal for most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 303 AM Wednesday: A weak cold front should stall out to
our south on Thursday as a surface high moving past to our north
ridges down and gives as a pretty springtime day with temps
a few degrees on the cool side of normal. On Thursday night,
that high pressure center will move to the Hudson R Valley, in
a decent position to function as a parent high to the formation
of a cold air damming wedge across the fcst area. Meanwhile, the
old front will start to lift back northward in response to the low
pressure system wrapping up over the central Plains. The forecast
becomes uncertain, though, because the all the players don`t seem
to be reading from the same script. The main problem might be the
building mid/upper ridge axis overhead on Friday, which keeps the
mid/upper forcing away to the west and minimizes the development
and impact of isentropic lift at low/mid levels. The end result is
a relatively low chance of precip, particularly east of the mtns
where it would be needed to lock in a wedge air mass. Instead, we
just end up with a slightly cooler day with some showers around,
mainly over the mtns. If we get more precip than expected, then
high temps will have to be cut down accordingly. Any precip that
develops should diminish overnight on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 227 AM Wednesday: Not much to get excited about out in the
Medium Range. The upper pattern progression slows to a crawl
over the weekend, keeping the axis of a mid/upper ridge over
the area from the Appalachians to the East Coast, and all the
energy lifting northeastward out of the upper troffing over the
Plains off to our west through at least Monday. This pattern will
support a surface high pressure center migrating from off the
nrn Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday morning to a position off the
Southeast Coast on Monday. While the high position is favorable for
cold air damming on Saturday, once the sun comes up and warms the
boundary layer, the static stability is no longer high enough and
the low level flow veers around to the east and southeast. Expect
a few ridgetop showers in the afternoon on Saturday, which will
be included. There is some indication of a weak impulse coming
in from the Atlantic to give us some shower activity on Sunday,
but the chance of that is too remote to include just yet. Monday
also looks basically dry. Instead, the main deal will be warming
temps through the weekend and into the first half of next week,
creeping upward a few degrees each day and ending up on the order
of ten degrees above normal by Monday and Tuesday. Eventually,
by Tuesday, the axis of the upper ridge goes positive and gets
pushed off the East Coast as the deamplifying upper trof finally
lifts out of the Plains and across the Great Lakes. This should
push a dying cold front toward the region on Tuesday, possibly
through the region Tuesday night, accounting for a chance of
precip during that time period. We always look for severe storm
possibilities with springtime frontal passages, but this one looks
fairly unimpressive at this time. In fact, looking ahead a bit,
the model blend barely makes a bump in the temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. A weak cold front is currently pushing
across the area from the northwest with an associated band of broken
high clouds and a few isolated to widely scattered showers. A stray
shower will be possible in the vicinity of KCLT over the next
several hours, but most locations will stay dry with no impacts.
Skies will gradually clear through the evening with clear conditions
returning by Thursday morning. Winds will shift to out of the
northwest behind the front, but will be weak.

Outlook: Dry weather returns Thursday into this weekend, but this
is subject to change as a warm front lifts north of the area by
Saturday with possible restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/TW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...TW