Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
518 FXUS66 KHNX 292259 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 359 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .UPDATE... Air Quality Section Updated && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes valid from 4 PM this afternoon through 5 AM Tuesday morning. 2. Strong wind gusts are likely across the Mojave Desert slopes continuing through Tuesday and Wednesday morning. 3. High temperatures will change little through Wednesday, remaining around climatological averages for this time of year. 4. Warming conditions are expected late in the week with highs around 8 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday. Probabilities of exceedance for 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley are around 20 to 40%. 5. Ensemble guidance is trending towards a weekend system bringing snowfall to the central Sierra Nevada and periods of rainfall to the San Joaquin Valley. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level system located over the Pacific northwest is forcing atmospheric flow over central California from the west- northwest, resulting in clear, dry conditions over the area. Breezy conditions are expected to be in place for the next few days with winds largely aligned from this direction through the low to mid levels. Ensemble guidance from the HREF gives a moderate to high (40 to 80 percent) probability for wind gusts to reach or exceed 25 miles per hour this evening in the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County. Similar conditions will be present for Tuesday and Wednesday as well. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes from 4 PM PDT this afternoon until 5 AM PDT tomorrow morning due to expected sustained winds 25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts up to 55 miles per hour possible. Reduced visibility is also possible due to periods of blowing dust in this area. Maximum temperatures across central California are expected near seasonal averages through Wednesday as this pattern persists through midweek. A strengthening ridge in the upper levels will bring an increased chance for above average temperatures to round out the week. The following are probabilities to exceed 90 degrees Friday afternoon for select areas of the San Joaquin Valley. Bakersfield 36% Delano 36% Fresno 31% Hanford 31% Lemoore 31% Visalia 31% Porterville 21% Madera 16% Reedley 16% Merced 11% Cluster analysis continues to trend towards an upper level system impacting central California this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and the potential for mountain snowfall and valley rainfall. Early indications from the NBM ensemble points towards a moderate (40 to 60 percent) probability for measurable rainfall (greater than or equal to 0.01 inches). Temperatures are expected to return near normal around 80 degrees, with much of the valley areas having a low to moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance to exceed 80 degrees on Sunday. && .AVIATION... Strong wind gusts 35 to 45 knots are possible along the Mojave Desert Slopes overnight through Tuesday morning. Otherwise,.VFR conditions will prevail across central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 04/29/2024 14:15 EXPIRES: 04/30/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation...SM IDSS.............DAS weather.gov/hanford