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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 220757
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1257 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High temperatures peak today with most of the Valley at 25 to 55
percent chance of 90 degrees or higher with lower values north
of Fresno and closer to the foothills.

2. Cooling trend expected Tuesday through Friday.

3. A few thunderstorms possible in the Sierra Nevada on Wednesday.

4. The next storm system may impact the area Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We have a ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin which has
been responsible for the above average temperatures the past
few days. This afternoon, we are looking at the warmest day so
far this year with the following probabilities for high
temperatures of at least 90 degrees:

Fresno 56%
Bakersfield 51%
Lemoore 41%
Delano 46%
Hanford 31%
Porterville 26%
Delano 41%

However, things change on Tuesday as the ridge moves east and a
trough moves in from the Pacific coast as part of a split flow
bringing cooler temperatures. Model ensembles are in agreement
that this trough will be absorbed by the trough that will run
across the Pacific Northwest at the same time by early Friday.
This merger will strengthen over the Rockies and would bring in
a secondary backdoor slider over the Sierra Nevada on Friday. By
Friday, there will only be a 25 percent probability or less of
high temperatures of at least 75 degrees across the San Joaquin
Valley and foothills.

This change in pattern will first bring a 10 to 15 percent chance of
thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada on Wednesday afternoon and
evening. However, the second trough on Friday currently has a 5 to
10 percent chance of a tenth of an inch or more of rain for the San
Joaquin Valley.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California for
at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...JPK
PIO/DSS....BS

weather.gov/hanford