087
FXUS64 KHUN 280650
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

An upper ridge pattern continues to gradually move eastward into
the mid/southern Atlantic Coast, while high pressure at the sfc
settles into the southern Atlantic Basin. With a return flow
pattern well entrenched across much of the region, seasonably
warm/humid conditions will continue thru the second half of the
weekend period, as afternoon highs again climb predom into the
upper 70s/lower 80s, under partly/mostly cloudy skies. Relatively
breezy conditions will also continue into the evening hrs, with
SSE winds near 15 MPH coupled with gusts around 20-25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Seasonably warm/dry conditions will linger thru tonight, as lows
fall mainly into the mid 60s/near 60F. The overall pattern will
then begin to change going into the new work week, as the upper
ridge axis drifts into the mid/southern Atlantic Basin, while an
upper low/trough pattern out of the mid/southern Plains lifts NE.
An attendant sfc low will also lift into the upper MS Valley,
thereby helping to drag a cold front into the Midwest region.
Gulf moisture will spread back into the mid TN Valley Mon, with
increasing showers/tstms developing along/ahead of the oncoming
front. Relatively high chances for showers/tstms (70-80%) will
develop Mon night, as the front drifts closer to the area. The
front may then stall just to the NW of the local area on Tue, as
the upper trough axis crosses into the region. Low-medium chances
for showers/tstms (20-40%) will linger into Tue, before rainfall
tapers off Tue night, as drier air above H85 filters into the
region out of the WNW. The prob for any stronger storms looks
minimal attm, given the lack of any sig low-level convergence
coupled with better synoptic forcing diverting more to the north.
Seasonably warm temps look to continue Mon/Tue, with highs once
again climbing into the upper 70s/lower 80s, while overnight lows
trend predom in the mid 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper ridging will build into the Oh River Valley and northeast along
the Atlantic Coast through the second half of the work week, and will
keep temperatures on the warm side. Daily highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s, with very low (10-20%) chances for diurnal showers/storms
each afternoon through Thursday. By Friday, an upper low will pivot
from the Central Plains and into the upper Midwest, and a cold
front will push east, approaching the MS River Valley. As synoptic
lift increases ahead of this front, rain and storm chances will
increase to around 40-50% during the day on Friday and into Friday
night. Rain chances over the weekend will depend on the strength
of the ridge over the Gulf and southern Atlantic coast, which
could stall the sfc front just to our south early Saturday before
it lifts back north. This would support additional showers and
storms through the weekend, so have stuck with blended guidance
for PoPs (40-50%) at this range. Temperatures will cool but only
slightly Friday and Saturday, with highs near the low 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mid/high clouds out of the south continue to gradually move over
parts of the area heading into the overnight hrs. Sct cloud cover
will linger for much of Sun, maintaining VFR conds thru the TAF
period. SE winds near 7-8kt will also increase closer to 12-14kt
with higher gusts Sun morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09