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000
FXUS63 KICT 170351
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1051 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild an windy this afternoon and Wednesday

- Much cooler with a good chance for rain to end the week and into
the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Current satellite shows a strong but seasonal storm system exiting
the CWA to the east.  Dryer air is moving into the region behind the
front which will not bring temperatures down much if at all. This
will leave a mild and windy day today.  Wednesday will be another
mild day due to some slight ridging in the mid levels and light
southerly winds providing weak WAA over the region. Temperatures are
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.


Wednesday night and into Thursday, the forecast becomes tricky.  All
the ensembles are indicating the next weather system will be
encroaching on the region.  Moisture advection will pick up
Wednesday night and into Thursday.  Rain chances will increase and
become more likely over much of the CWA (30%-60%) with only the far
southwestern areas of the CWA likely to miss out completely.
Thunderstorm chances appear to be restricted to Southeast and South
Central Kansas at this time.  Severe thunderstorms do not appear
likely as the shear values are not that great.  This is also where
confidence in the forecast for Thursday drops off considerably.
While all the ensembles are indicating this frontal system will
provide rain (possibly thunderstorms) and bring much colder air to
the region, timing and track of the main frontal passage remains in
doubt, especially for southern and Southeast Kansas.  ECMWF and
Canadian families have a more northerly track and is a little slower
indicating that low 70s are possible in South Central Kansas while
mid and upper 70s are possible in Southeast Kansas. The GFS and NAM
families are a little further south and faster. This would indicated
that only areas of Southeast Kansas will make it into the 70s and
this will be early as the front will come through all areas by early
to mid afternoon. Areas of Central Kansas are likely to remain much
cooler than Southeastern areas of the state with either of the
aforementioned solutions. This will be due to the polar airmass that
will be intruding into the region Thursday and will likely linger
through the weekend. Frost is a possibility in Northern Central
Kansas but this will be dependent on the winds and cloud cover. The
orientation of this weather system indicates the potential for some
snow to mix in with the rain in North Central Kansas but given the
sun angle for mid April, this is unlikely (<15%) but can`t be ruled
out either. If any snow does occur, is not expected to accumulate or
cause any travel issues. Additionally, winds will be brisk and from
the northeast.

The weekend looks tricky temperature wise.  Temperatures will be
highly depended on cloud cover.  North to north east winds are
expected both days which is not a "warm" direction and usually keeps
temperatures cooler.  Given the current depicted orientation of the
high pressure system to the northeast, this could keep temperatures
well below normal for a few days with some areas struggling to reach
60.  Southeast Kansas will likely remain in the low 60s.  This
indicates temperatures will be about 7-15 degrees below normal for
this time of year for most of the region for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Aviation concern are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Upper low will continue to lift off to the northeast and will be
moving into the West Great Lakes region by Wed afternoon. Light
winds will come around to the north and eventually southeast by
Wed afternoon and will stay on the light side. Confidence
remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through
this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...RBL