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000
FXUS62 KILM 220737
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cool weather expected today with sunshine returning
as high pressure builds in from the west. Warmer temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday will cool behind a cold front Wednesday
night into Thursday. High pressure will build down from the
north Thursday with warming into the weekend as ridge builds
overhead. Limited chances of rain exist through much of the
week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Yesterday`s early morning cold front has sunk down to central
Florida and has moved about 200 miles east of Cape Fear. Low level
cold advection will continue today and 850 mb temps should tumble to
near zero C by noon. The upper level trough is moving through the NC
mountains as I write and should move across the eastern Carolinas
early this afternoon. Although drying conditions below 850 mb should
help scour our the low stratus, considerable mid level clouds may
hang around until the upper trough scoots offshore.

Modest dynamic lift within the PVA pattern ahead of the trough may
be able to develop light rain this morning. Forecast PoPs in the 20-
40 percent range cover mainly the coastal counties, and rain chances
should largely end by noon. Even for spots that do manage to pick up
measurable rain, we`re talking just a couple hundredths of an inch
at best given meager lift and the increasing depth of sub-cloud dry
air.

Forecast highs today have been nudged down slightly with mainly
lower 60s - except a few mid 60s across the Pee Dee region.

Skies should quickly clear out this evening and winds should
decrease to less than 5 mph with the approach of the high from the
west. Radiational cooling looks good and low temperatures look to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s for most areas. Patchy frost
may occur in normally cold locations, but the potential for more
widespread frost appears limited by temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny dry day expected on Tues as airmass modifies with high
pressure moving overhead and then shifting offshore Tues eve
with a southerly return flow developing. Temps will reach back
up over 70 on Tues, but will still remain below normal. Warming
will continue with temps Tues night closer to normal and Wed
highs will be above normal back up closer to 80. Moisture will
increase Wed aftn through Wed eve ahead of a moisture starved
cold front that drops through the area Wed night. Any chc of
minimal pcp would come Wed eve, but not counting on any at the
moment. Cooler and drier air will advect in with northerly flow
behind front into Thurs morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind cold front on Thurs but
shortwave Thurs aftn should keep clouds in the forecast and may
produce a spotty shwr. Temps will in the 70s, a few degrees
cooler than day before in a northerly flow.

The center of the high will shift off the Mid Atlantic coast
while continuing to extend back down into the Carolinas on Fri.
Should see an increase in clouds and moisture late Fri through
Sat as winds come around to the E-SE with weak lift and minor
shortwave energy rides over the top of the ridge. Moisture seems
fairly limited and ridge holds through the mid to upper levels.
Therefore do not expect much more than clouds into the weekend
with very slim chc of any pcp. Will keep any mention of pcp out
of the forecast for now. Expect a steady warming through the
weekend as heights rise with ridging up through the Southeast
and temps back up closer to 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low stratus deck near 1000 feet AGL and a mid level 6000 foot
cloud deck both exist across the eastern Carolinas early this
morning. There is a moderate to high probability that the 1000
foot (low MVFR) ceiling will dominate at most local airports
through 09-10z before it erodes with drier air arriving from
the north. There is a low probability that this cloud base could
dip below 1000 feet into the IFR category before 09z, mainly at
the two Myrtle Beach airports.

The mid level ceilings will be more persistent, likely
remaining along the coast until this afternoon before likewise
dissipating. North surface winds will increase to 10-15 kt
during the daylight hours, then should become light tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Wednesday. There is a low
probability of MVFR ceilings on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...The cold front now extends from central
Florida to about 200 miles east of Cape Fear. Low pressure
developing along the front is helping tighten up the pressure
gradient between it and high pressure over Arkansas. One surge
of north winds began yesterday evening with gusts recorded as
high as 28 kt at the CORMP nearshore Wrightsville Beach buoy and
33 kt at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Another surge is expected
to develop this morning. Based on latest wind and wave height
forecasts I`m extending the Small Craft Advisory for the Cape
Fear waters through 7 pm. Conditions should improve more quickly
along the Grand Strand coastal waters and the advisory will
remain posted there through noon.

Moderate northerly winds this evening should veer northeasterly and
slowly diminish in speed tonight as high pressure approaches from
the west.

Tuesday through Friday...Relatively lighter northerly flow will
veer around to E as high pressure reaches closer overhead. A
SW return flow will develop Tues night into Wed as high pressure
moves off the coast. Seas will come down a bit Mon night into
Tues, dropping to 2 to 4 ft, but the increasing onshore flow
Tues night and then southerly push ahead of a cold front late
Wed into Wed night should drive seas back up a foot or so. Winds
will shift around behind cold front into Thurs morning with NE
flow Thurs through Fri.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/RGZ