215
FXUS62 KILM 280748
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
348 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle just offshore today. A warming trend
will develop early next week as the high shifts off of the
southeast US coast with gradually increasing humidity through the
week. A cold front moves through late in the week, which brings
an increased chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will settle just offshore today, maintaining quiet
weather across the eastern Carolinas. Morning mid level clouds will
gradually give way to afternoon cumulus along a weak sea breeze.
Ridging aloft and weak onshore flow will bring a warm and more humid
afternoon than yesterday. Expect afternoon highs to reach the 80
degree mark across a large portion of the CWA. Cooler near the coast
with onshore flow. Clear tonight with patchy fog possible near
daybreak. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Offshore high pressure continues to influence the area, while mid-
level ridging gradually pushes offshore Monday and Monday night.
This brings a quiet forecast with no rain chances to speak of.

Things get only slightly more interesting Tuesday, as a mid-level
shortwave moves through the area. This increases moisture, but looks
to manifest in more cloud cover than anything else. Only a some
isolated showers or a storm is possible inland. Highs each day in
the low-to-mid 80s, with lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant synoptic features in play Wednesday or Thursday,
allowing more mesoscale features to dominate the local weather.
There appears to be a weak and subtle Piedmont trough inland, which
will try to bring in some afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances,
though confidence is low in this idea.

Synoptic organization gets a bit better by Friday and Saturday as a
cold front approaches the area. Even so, looks like the best forcing
is well to the north. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead
of this front, but nothing looks like a slam dunk yet. The front
seems to slow down significantly before it reaches the area. Highs
continue to be in the low-to-mid 80s, with lows in the lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR this morning with remnant high and mid level clouds passing
overhead. Can`t rule out shallow ground fog early this morning
with light winds and low level moisture return. Not including
fog in the TAF at this time. Shallow convective cumulus will
develop this afternoon with light winds as high pressure settles
just offshore. Remaining VFR through Sunday night.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early
next week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs
each morning. Isolated showers accompanying a cold front
possible Tue night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure settles just offshore today. Light
winds (around 10 knots) will gradually veer throughout the afternoon,
becoming southerly late this afternoon into this evening. A few gusts
to 20 knots are possible near the coast as an afternoon sea breeze
develops. Easterly swell will be the primary producer of 3-4 foot
seas.

Monday through Thursday...Southwesterly winds at 5-10kts continue
through Wednesday, with seas at 2-3ft. Winds then back to the ENE
Thursday morning, before settling on southeast by the afternoon.
Seas drop to 1-2ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/IGB