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000
FXUS61 KILN 200720
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
320 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area through the weekend and
persist into early next week. Temperatures will be below normal
over the weekend and then start to moderate on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through sunrise, mid level clouds will gradually exit and thin,
leaving mostly clear skies by sunrise.

For today, a broad mid level trough will remain across the
Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England. Meanwhile, at
the surface, high pressure will be located across the Ohio
Valley. A mix of scattered high clouds and diurnal cumulus
(northern locations) will result in mostly sunny skies. It will
be cool, along with some gusty northwest winds between 20 and 30
mph. Highs will range from the lower 50s northwest to the lower
60s far south and southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Although high pressure ridging will remain across the Ohio
Valley tonight, a few mid level systems, one moving into the
southeast U.S., and another digging into the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley into the base of the aforementioned mid level trough,
will result in a gradual increase in cloud cover overnight.
Temperatures will drop into the 30s region wide. However, the
increase in clouds, along with some persistent sustained winds
from the west/northwest between 5 and 10 knots, should limit the
formation of frost. However, our far northeast forecast area
may reach freezing overnight due to thicker clouds making it
there last. Based on HREF probabilities and in collaboration
with surrounding offices, have hoisted a freeze watch for four
counties (Hardin, Union, Delaware, and Licking) where 32 degrees
may occur. Later data will dictate whether this gets upgraded
to a warning or gets canceled should forecast temperatures
change (become slightly warmer).

On Sunday, the mid level disturbance will exit off to the
southeast, gradually taking mid/high level clouds with it.
However, cooler air aloft, and with some moisture remaining at
850 mb, will likely result in some diurnal cumulus clouds which
may be enough in coverage to result in partly cloudy skies. It
will remain cool with highs ranging from the mid to the upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds overhead from the west Sunday night into
Monday. Calm winds and clear skies should allow favorable
radiational cooling Sunday night which should allow lows to drop
into the 30s. At least patchy frost frost is possible across
the area. High rise into the lower 60s areawide on Monday under
mostly sunny skies.

By Monday night, surface high pressure moves southeast and an
upper level vorticity max along with a surface low moves towards
the region. Winds increase out of the southwest Monday night
into Tuesday ahead of the disturbance. Temperatures, moisture,
and rain chances rise through Thursday evening before a cold
front attached to the disturbance pushes through the area.
Thunder chances remain fairly low since instability likely
remains limited to non-existent.

Rain chances and temperatures drop after FROPA Tuesday night
bringing the return of below average temperatures and dry
conditions through Friday. Frost may be possible once again on
Wednesday night. Temperatures moderate by the weekend when
southerly winds redevelop and rain chances return.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the remainder of the overnight period, mid clouds will
eventually exit and thin through sunrise, leave mostly clear
skies by 12Z. Winds will be from the west/northwest near 10
knots.

For today, a broad mid level trough will remain across the
Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England. Meanwhile, at
the surface, high pressure will extend east across the Ohio
Valley. Scattered high clouds will predominate, although a FEW-
SCT diurnal cumulus clouds may develop near/north of the
northern terminals in the afternoon. It will become a little
gusty after 14Z. Winds from the northwest between 10 and 15
knots will gust between 15 and 25 knots. Gusty winds will begin
to subside after 23Z as diurnal cooling allows the atmosphere to
decouple.

For tonight, mid level energy will move east across the
southeast U.S. while an embedded disturbance digs southeast into
the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some CAA stratocumulus
clouds will creep in from the northwest. Meanwhile, mid and
high level moisture from the southern system is expected to
enhance late ahead of the northern disturbance. Thus, a mix of
stratocumulus clouds (northwest) and mid/high clouds are
forecast. Winds will settle down and will range from northwest
to north around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible on Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     OHZ026-045-046-056.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman