Spot Forecast
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000
FNUS73 KILX 231054
FWSILX

Spot Forecast for Meinhart burn...NRCS
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
554 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (217) 732-3089 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Vent rates will improve throughout the weekend as mixing heights
and transport winds gradually increase ahead of a frontal system.
North winds will gradually veer to easterly and southerly tonight
into Sunday as the frontal system approaches. Strong southerly winds
develop Monday with a period of 35-50 mph gusts. These gusts will
become less frequent as heavy rainfall commences Monday evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........32 at ignition...Max 49.
RH..................85 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 16 to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 12
                    to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /46800 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...Fair
                    /57600 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........81     80     65     27     5      6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............32     33     37     43     48     49
RH..............85     82     70     53     42     40
20 ft wind......N 15   N 15   N 15   N 14   N 14   NE 12
20 ft wind gust.25     25     23     18     18     16
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   2600   3200   3300   4000   4300
Transport wind..N 25   N 23   N 21   N 18   N 16   N 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..47     52     57     53     56     47
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 32.
RH..................Max 69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........20     28     50     61     57     52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............48     41     38     37     34     33
RH..............42     55     62     59     64     63
20 ft wind......NE 9   NE 9   E 9    E 10   E 10   E 10
20 ft wind gust.13     13     16     20     20     21
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   400    400    500    500    500
Transport wind..NE 10  NE 9   E 10   E 14   E 15   E 14
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37     4      4      6      7      6
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to Good (63200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........64     69     62     54     58     39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............32     34     39     47     52     55
RH..............66     64     57     42     36     35
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 12  SE 14  SE 15  SE 15  SE 16
20 ft wind gust.23     23     24     23     23     24
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1100   1900   2100   2500   2900
Transport wind..SE 16  SE 18  SE 23  SE 24  SE 24  SE 25
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11     18     38     45     51     63
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...37
Requested by...Wade Bloemer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408248.0/ILX
.DELDT 03/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Wade.bloemer@illinois


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