Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190820
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Hot humid conditions are in store again today for central Indiana. A
cold front will start to move south through the area and bring
chances for thunderstorms with it. This front will stall somewhere
in the area and prompt chances for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the forecast period. Temperatures will drop off from
where they`ve been recently with highs from Wednesday on in the low
to middle 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The forecast focus today is on the heat as well as chances for
showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will slowly sink south
through the forecast area today. Skies south of the front will be
mostly sunny and this will allow for ample heating again. However
this will also increase instability and allow for the formation of
showers and thunderstorms, which will in turn limit just how hot
temperatures can get today. With that in mind went with a guidance
average for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dew points
still hanging around in the lower 70s expect to see heat index
values around 100. The best chances for thunderstorms will be in the
late afternoon to early evening as the front sinks south and
instability is maximized. While there is little shear for storm
organization and maintenance, instability combined with the front
will be enough to pop a few strong storms, and cannot rule out an
isolated severe storm or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...

Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

A stalling front will keep the weather unsettled through the short
term. Chances for thunderstorms will be in the forecast for every
period. This will also increase cloud cover, and combined with the
upper pattern showing the ridge slipping further south will
decrease temperatures to closer to normal for this time of year.
There is some potential for heavy rains to occur over the same
area on subsequent days given the high precipitable water values
and a stalled surface front. This will depend though on whether
the front stalls out completely and where this occurs, and pinning
down the location where it sets up is low confidence at this time.
Current storm total QPF is 1.5 to 3 inches across the area through
Thursday night. Will have to monitor this situation for possible
ESF or flood watch issuance.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement early in the extended,
however the individual solutions diverge quite a bit by early next
week, suggesting a lower confidence forecast late in the period.

Ensembles agree for the most part in moving an upper low,
currently over the northern Rockies, into the Midwest by Friday.
Will keep PoPs in the forecast at that time, coinciding with the
arrival of the upper low.

After Friday, ensemble solutions diverge. Some of the ensembles
suggest the upper ridge may build back into the area by the weekend
and on into early next week, while other solutions suggest upper low
may stall over the area and gradually shear out with time. At this
point, the majority of the ensembles suggest the latter solutions
are more likely, so will keep PoPs going into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 190900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Outflow boundary about 20 miles north of the KIND terminal has
been sinking south over the past couple of hours. Could be a brief
wind shift to the north around 191000Z if it holds together, but
wind speeds look rather weak behind the boundary, so the wind
shift may not be too significant.

Last evening`s upper air indicates mid level cap still in place,
so don`t think convective potential in the vicinity of the KIND
terminal is particularly high this morning. There has been some
cloud development 035-050 near and behind this boundary, so add
some clouds near this level to the forecast for the early morning
hours.

Previous discussion follows.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually spread across the TAF
sites from north to south with a cold front after Tue 06Z.
Conditions will generally be at VFR levels, but they could quickly
deteriorate in any heavy rain. KIND and KLAF can expect
shower/thunderstorm activity this morning, but KHUF and KBMG will
have better chances after Tue 18Z. Meanwhile, winds will
generally be west/southwesterly at 5 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS



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