Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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049
FXUS63 KIND 251405
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1005 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

An upper system will pivot southeast across the Great Lakes today
and surface high pressure will build in tonight. This will provide
dry weather through Thursday night. The, another low pressure system
will bring shower chances to the area on Friday. After that, dry
weather will take over again with above normal temperatures next
week as ridging moves overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Added patchy fog per latest obs and also sent out a Special Weather
Statement.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Cloud cover and resultant temperatures will be the main focus for
today.

GOES 16 water vapor imagery was showing an upper low moving east
over the western Carolinas, an upper trough pivoting southeast over
Lake Superior and eastern Wisconsin and another broad trough over
Nebraska. Meanwhile, a weak cold front was moving into west central
Indiana at 06z. Radar was clean and GOES 16 night fog product
indicated stratocu field was over the eastern half of central
Indiana with some mid and high clouds over northern Illinois.

Model rh time sections, low level rh progs and cu development progs
all suggest there will be decent clearing from northwest to
southeast today. Despite some cold advection, the breaks in the
clouds should allow temperatures to top out near normal this
afternoon with highs in the lower 60s north to the upper 60s
southwest in the cards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Main focus for the short term will be on timing and coverage of
showers.

Models in general agreement that the upper Nebraska trough will
deepen form a closed low before it moves over the southern states
late this week. The low should be far enough south of the Ohio
River, that no PoPs will be needed in our area until Friday, when an
upper trough and weak cold front approach. Models were showing a
ribbon of 60-80 percent 1000-500 millibar rh along and ahead of the
front. This is enough to keep a small PoP in for Friday. Otherwise,
high confidence dry weather will be in control through early next
week.

With some sunshine and return to southerly flow, look for near
normal temperatures per the blend with highs mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Dry weather is expected through the long term under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and aloft. Better than average
confidence in this dry stretch with good ensemble agreement.
Temperatures will increase a bit each day, starting out near normal
on Saturday and getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday.
Of note for lows, Saturday night/Sunday morning could see some areas
with lows still down in the mid 30s, but this is the only night
that frost may be a concern in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 25/15Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1003 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Update...
Increased winds to 12 kts and lowered flight category to IFR at
KIND.

Previous Discussion...
The sites will start out with both visibility and ceiling
restrictions this morning. Patchy fog will continue to bounce
between MVFR and IFR (and at times even lower) for the next couple
of hours. In addition, mainly MVFR ceilings will the rule, with
some patches of IFR ceilings more likely at KIND and KBMG than the
other sites. All of these restrictions though should show some
improvement by 14z or so and expect to see VFR over all the sites
by around 18z or so. Winds will increase to around 8 to 12 kts or
so and remain out of the northwest throughout the day.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/TDUD



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