Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 172011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
410 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A weakening upper low is expected to pass through the area later
this afternoon and evening. Another low pressure system is expected
to affect the area early next week. In the wake of this system, high
pressure will build into the area for the middle and later parts of
next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Weakening upper low currently over Illinois will be passing over the
local area later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Radar
indicates there is still some patches of light rain and drizzle
associated with this feature, so will keep some PoPs going into the
evening hours until the upper low passes off to the east. Most of
the lingering precipitation should be in the form of rain, but there
could be a light mix at times over some of the northern zones.

Short term model data suggest the low clouds should start scattering
out from the north around sunset, with the clearing line slowly
dropping south tonight, although the clearing line may not reach the
far southern zones until well after midnight.

There may be some fog development, especially later tonight, as
skies clear with a light gradient and residual moisture.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look
reasonable, so little if any adjustments planned.


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Next upper trough is expected to move into the Midwest by Monday,
with an associated surface low passing near of south of the Ohio
River. Warm advection begins Sunday night, so will bring PoPs back
into the southern zones Sunday night, and spread them northward into
the rest of the area on Monday and Monday night. The highest PoPs at
this time appear to be Monday afternoon and evening over the
southern zones, coinciding with the best lift.

Thicknesses suggest rain will be the predominate precipitation type
Sunday night and Monday, however thicknesses are expected to lower
Monday night, allowing for more of a mixed precipitation threat by
that time. Some light accumulations are possible over parts of the
area Monday night.

Will keep some chance PoPs for mixed precipitation into Tuesday
morning as the system passes off to the east, however some of the
ensembles suggest the precipitation threat may linger longer
into the day Tuesday.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Sunday
may be a bit on the warm side. Will nudge the guidance highs down a
category. The remainder of the periods look OK at this time.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Models indicate a split upper flow with an upper ridge over
central Canada and an an upper trough over eastern Canada.
There is also an active southern stream during the period.
High pressure will build into our area by Wednesday and keep
us cool and dry Tuesday night through Thursday night.

A low pressure system over the central plains will track east
across Indiana next weekend. The 12Z European model is 12 to 18
hours slower than the GFS and Canadian models.  Will go with a
blend.  As a result slowed down Superblend precipitation timing
slightly.  Indications at this time precipitation will be mainly

Lowered daytime temperatures a little northern sections Saturday.
Otherwise...stayed close to Superblend temperatures other periods.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 172100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Upper low currently drifting into northwest Indiana will result in a
continued threat for IFR ceilings/visibilities, and occasional light
rain/drizzle, at the KIND terminal for a few more hours.
Improvements expected towards and after 180000Z.

Previous discussion follows.

IFR ceilings with scattered showers improving to MVFR by evening
and VFR overnight.

Low pressure over extreme southwest Indiana will track east across
northern Kentucky.  Weather depiction indicates scattered showers
and IFR ceilings from 6 hundred to 1 thousand feet.  Expect little
change this afternoon and then a gradual improvement this evening
and beyond as drier air spreads south across Indiana.

An area of high pressure over the upper midwest will move to
northern and central Indiana by 12Z Sunday.  NortheaST winds up
to 8 knots will become light north this evening and variable by




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