Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Cloudy and rainy weather will persist into Wednesday as a low
pressure system currently centered over western Tennessee
continues its track into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. After a
lull in activity around mid-week with high pressure, the next
system and its associated cold front will bring additional rain
chances on Friday. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to be at
or slightly below normal until next weekend when there`s a shift
to warmer temperatures.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The main focus of tonight will be rain chances.

Widespread rain showers will continue into tonight as Gulf
moisture rotates around a closed low situated over the lower Mid
Mississippi Valley. Eastern and southern portions of the forecast
area can still expect the highest rain amounts with a couple
additional tenths of an inch, but the best dynamics have already
shifted a bit eastward. As a result, the intensity of the rain
showers will decrease throughout the evening and night. The
western third of the forecast area will decrease to just slight
chance pops after midnight. This is a moderate to high confidence

Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer with readings in the
upper 40s/low 50s. No changes were made to the latest blended


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday/...

Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The aforementioned low pressure system will push into central
portions of Kentucky and Tennessee tomorrow. Additional rain
showers will continue through tomorrow evening (highest across
eastern counties) as moisture continues to wrap around the system.

Rain will start tapering off though during the Wed 00-06Z time
frame with most of central Indiana dry by Wed 06Z. After that, dry
conditions will prevail through the end of the short term period
has high pressure strengthens to the west.

The normal to slightly below normal temperatures will persist
throughout the period. Highs will generally be in the upper
50s/low 60s with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s on Tuesday night.
Wednesday night will be the coolest night of the week with decent
radiational cooling as skies clear behind the low pressure system.
Lows will dip back into the mid to upper 30s that night.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...

Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

ECMWF suggests rather quiet weather through this period. The only
significant event appears to be the passage of a quick moving cold
front and upper wave pushing through the region on Friday. Have
included pops with this feature.

The ECMWF Then allows strong ridging aloft over the western
plains to slowly build east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. This will bring dry and cool weather to Central Indiana as
lee side NW flow will prevalent through the weekend and into
early next week. Thus with strong High pressure in place across
the region...dry weather next weekend after Friday`s Cold front.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231800Z Tafs/...

Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR CIGs are expected to deteriorate to MVFR or worse overnight.

Low pressure over southeast Missouri will progress south of
Indiana overnight...pushing across Kentucky through Tuesday. Time
heights and forecast soundings show saturation within the lowest
levels as the low pushes south of Indiana Overnight. Thus with
weak lift in place and good lower level moisture...a good set-up
is in place for MVFR or worse CIGS. Little to no improvement
toward VFR is expected until Tuesday night.





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