Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230213
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1013 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Most of the short term period will be cloudy and rainy as a
closed low tracks from the Central Plains through the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys. The strongest dynamics should stay south of
central Indiana though, so will continue to only keep rain
showers in the short term forecast for now. After a lull in
activity around mid-week with high pressure, the next system and
associated cold front will bring additional rain chances and
cooler temperatures Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Area of rain over the southwest sections of the forecast area is
gradually drying up as lift diminishes. Short term model guidance
suggests little in the way of significant lift over the area until
about 230800Z, when more organized lift, and resultant better
precipitation threat, moves in from the south.

Based on above, will delay the higher PoPs until the early morning
hours of Monday, and also push the northern extent of the PoPs a
little farther south.

Previous discussion follows.

The main focus of the near term period will be rain chances mainly
across the southern half of central Indiana.

Current IR sat imagery shows an area of low pressure situated over
the Lower Mississippi Valley with a large plume of Gulf moisture
being ejected northward ahead of it. This correlates well with the
current radar imagery, too, which shows all returns over Kentucky
and Illinois. As the aforementioned low shifts east/southeastward
tonight though, that moisture will start entering central Indiana
from the south. As a result, stuck close to the latest blended
initialization which matches this trend well. Rain chances will
gradually increase throughout the night from the south with
definite chances across the southernmost counties by daybreak.
This is a moderate to high confidence forecast. Meanwhile,
temperatures tonight will be at or slightly above normal with
readings in the mid 40s (N) to low 50s (S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Wednesday/...

Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Focus for the short term period will remain on the system
mentioned in the near term period.

Rain chances will stay in the forecast from tomorrow through
Tuesday as the low takes a northeastward jog toward the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys.

The highest chances for rain across central Indiana will be across
the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area mainly from
Monday morning through Monday evening. A strong low level jet
ahead of the system will help to generate the rain, but again the
best forcing will remain across Kentucky. Nonetheless, it should
be just enough for some decent rain showers early Monday.

As the system moves farther into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, rain
will taper off across central Indiana and subsidence will increase
with approaching high pressure. So, most of the area will be dry
by Wednesday. This, too, is a medium to high confidence forecast.
High temperatures through the period will generally be in the
upper 50s/low 60s with lows in the upper 40s/low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Much of the extended period now appears likely to be dry with one
major exception Thursday night and Friday as a sharp upper trough
and associated surface cold front dive across the area.

High pressure will build in behind the early week system with the
upper level wave originally expected to impact the region midweek
now likely to remain off to the south and west of central Indiana.
The aforementioned upper trough will dive through the parent eastern
U S trough and across the region Thursday night and Friday bringing
scattered showers and making Friday the coolest day of the extended
as the region is impacted by raw and chilly northwest winds.

Once this feature shifts off to the east Friday night...a transition
to dry and progressively warmer weather is expected for next weekend
as surface high pressure builds in and the broad eastern upper
trough moves away. Temperatures will be cooler than normal initially
in the 50s and lower 60s...with the potential for mainly 50s if not
slightly chillier on Friday. The weekend will see a nice recovery as
mid level heights rise and warm advection develops. Should see highs
approaching 70 by Sunday with even warmer temperatures on the
horizon heading into the first few days of May.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 230300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Scattered to broken layers above 050 expected at the terminals
tonight, along with unrestricted visibility. Cloud layers near 050
may work their way into the KBMG/KHUF vicinity towards sunrise
Monday.

Some potential for light rain in the KHUF/KBMG vicinity for a
period later this evening, as rain band over southern Indiana
lifts tries to lift north, but short term model data suggests lift
associated with the rain band will diminish with time this
evening. Appears better threat for rain will arrive at the
southern terminals more towards sunrise Monday.

Surface winds 070-090 degrees at 8-13 kts tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...JAS



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