Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251021
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
620 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

An upper system will pivot southeast across the Great Lakes today
and surface high pressure will build in tonight. This will provide
dry weather through Thursday night. The, another low pressure system
will bring shower chances to the area on Friday. After that, dry
weather will take over again with above normal temperatures next
week as ridging moves overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Added patchy fog per latest obs and also sent out a Special Weather
Statement.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Cloud cover and resultant temperatures will be the main focus for
today.

GOES 16 water vapor imagery was showing an upper low moving east
over the western Carolinas, an upper trough pivoting southeast over
Lake Superior and eastern Wisconsin and another broad trough over
Nebraska. Meanwhile, a weak cold front was moving into west central
Indiana at 06z. Radar was clean and GOES 16 night fog product
indicated stratocu field was over the eastern half of central
Indiana with some mid and high clouds over northern Illinois.

Model rh time sections, low level rh progs and cu development progs
all suggest there will be decent clearing from northwest to
southeast today. Despite some cold advection, the breaks in the
clouds should allow temperatures to top out near normal this
afternoon with highs in the lower 60s north to the upper 60s
southwest in the cards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Main focus for the short term will be on timing and coverage of
showers.

Models in general agreement that the upper Nebraska trough will
deepen form a closed low before it moves over the southern states
late this week. The low should be far enough south of the Ohio
River, that no PoPs will be needed in our area until Friday, when an
upper trough and weak cold front approach. Models were showing a
ribbon of 60-80 percent 1000-500 millibar rh along and ahead of the
front. This is enough to keep a small PoP in for Friday. Otherwise,
high confidence dry weather will be in control through early next
week.

With some sunshine and return to southerly flow, look for near
normal temperatures per the blend with highs mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Dry weather is expected through the long term under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and aloft. Better than average
confidence in this dry stretch with good ensemble agreement.
Temperatures will increase a bit each day, starting out near normal
on Saturday and getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday.
Of note for lows, Saturday night/Sunday morning could see some areas
with lows still down in the mid 30s, but this is the only night
that frost may be a concern in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 250600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Sites are seeing visibility restrictions rather than ceilings so
adjusted in this manner. At KIND, still looking at IFR ceilings
upstream (which is currently northeast) so kept their introduction
at 10z but will have to monitor. Previous discussion follows...

Conditions expected to return to MVFR for most sites, with some IFR
possible at KBMG overnight. VFR returns by mid-afternoon Wednesday.

Western sites will likely remain VFR for a few hours before falling
to MVFR. KIND/KBMG may be VFR at 06Z but will likely return to MVFR
around that time. KBMG will likely get into some IFR ceilings late
tonight. Confidence is only medium at best given the current
variability and models overdoing IFR potential.

Drier air will move into the area from northwest to southeast during
the daylight hours Wednesday, bringing conditions back to VFR by mid-
afternoon. VFR will then persist into Wednesday night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP


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