Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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762
FXUS63 KIND 250832
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Well above temperatures and humid conditions are expected through
the Memorial Day weekend and next week. Thunderstorm chances will
return to central Indiana this weekend. Better chances will arrive
by the middle of next week as a tropical low lifts northeast to the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

The main concern today is whether or not any late afternoon storms
develop over southwestern portions of the forecast area as models
agree that moisture will be increasing there ahead of an upper level
trough. The trough is expected to move to near a Madison to St.
Louis line by 00z Saturday. With late day model CAPEs 500 to 1000
j/kg over our southwest, deepening moisture and proximity to the
trough, can not rule out a few storms after 21z there per the 00z
GFS, and ECMWF along with the blend. However, confidence is no
better than moderate on exact timing or even if they move into our
forecast area by 00z.

With light southwesterly flow, increasing mid and high clouds should
not be enough to stop temperatures from reaching the middle and
upper 80s per the blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

The heat and humidity and threat for thunderstorms will be the main
focus for the short term.

Models in good agreement that moisture will be increasing ahead of a
Gulf low, and an upper level trough will move across the area on
Saturday. The combination of lift, deepening moisture and weak
instability support chance PoPs Friday night and Saturday with the
best chance overnight near and west of the Interstate 69 corridor
Thanks IWX and Saturday near and east of Interstate 69. Confidence
is high that storms will develop and on the general timing. After
that, could see some lingering storms Saturday night and Sunday and
mainly southeast. However, with the trough departing and lack of a
notable lifting mechanism, confidence is low.

With low level southwesterly flow set to continue, should well above
normal temperatures with highs in the middle and upper 80s Saturday
and upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday. The combination of those
temperatures and upper 60s dew points will allow the heat index to
reach the middle 90s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

The extended period will start out with dry conditions on Monday.
However, focus will quickly turn to a low pressure system over the
Gulf, which will start affecting central Indiana by Tuesday.
Latest blended initialization seems reasonable, so did not deviate
from latest trends. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
periodically affect the forecast area in association with the
aforementioned low pressure system through Wednesday. Additional
shower and thunderstorm chances will then be possible late in the
extended period as disturances approach from the north, too.
Meanwhile, temperatures will be well above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 250900z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

NO changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 1124 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 00z Saturday.
Could see some MVFR conditions in thunderstorms after that as
moisture and instability increases from the south well ahead of a
tropical low. The best chances will be after 06z Saturday.
Confidence is not enough to go with anything other than prob30
groups at IND then.

Winds will be calm or light southwest.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK



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