187
FXUS62 KJAX 061944
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
344 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

...HOT CONDITIONS BUILDING MIDWEEK...

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A healthy cumulus field has developed with a few showers popping
along Atlantic sea breeze over northeast FL coastal counties
with a couple of showers also over eastern Marion, Putnam, and
soon to be Clay county. Sfc flow is light southerly over inland areas
and southeast at the coast from the sea breeze. Instability is
climbing, with recent analysis showing about 1000-1500 MLCAPE
and PWATs are about 1.5 to 1.7 inches, a bit above the average.
The forecast continues to show increasing chances of showers and
storms rest of today into the evening, with the favored area
inland areas. Minor adjustments were made to increase POPS slightly
by the evening hours, as the delayed onset of convection so far will
likely lead to convection continuing well into the evening before
dissipating by about midnight or 1 AM. The shortwave that is moving
across later this aftn and evening will also be supportive of the
expected scattered convection. Main threats continues to be strong
gusty outflow winds and heavy rainfall. Small hail is possible too
given 500 mb temps are cooling off to about -10C. After convection
is done late tonight, patchy fog will be possible over the western
zones as winds become light and variable and clouds clear out to the
east. Lows expected in the mid to upper 60s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday, patchy fog expected over the western most counties along
and west of US441 in SE GA and west of I-75 in NE FL with lows above
normal in the mid to upper 60s inland and upper 60s to around 70 at
coast. Low level ridge axis will shift south to central FL with light
SW winds 8-12 mph and little higher behind the pinned Atlantic
seabreeze staying east of I-95 to 10-15 mph. Less moisture
compared to Monday will yield limited chances for showers and
T`storms expected with only isolated storms possible east of US17
corridor. With mostly sunny skies, highs will be warmer into the
lower 90s for most with mid to upper 80s along the coast.

Wednesday, similar above normal lows compared to Tuesday morning with
patchy fog west of US-17 towards the Suwannee valley due to light
south to SW light winds from the Gulf boosting low level moisture
under mostly clear skies. With low level ridge axis over south
FL, highs will rise well above normal as southwest winds 8-12 mph
pin the Atlantic seabreeze to along the beaches with hot
conditions reaching the mid 90s along US-17/I-95 corridors
Wednesday and challenging daily record high values.

Similar conditions expected Thursday, albeit breezier as cold front
moves into the deep south with SW flow pinning Atlantic seabreeze and
providing little relief. Heat index values will peak around 100 degrees
as dewpoints mix down into the upper 60s in the breezy flow. Some
convection may arrive late Thursday afternoon and evening from central
GA ahead of the approaching cold front with a risk for strong to
even isolated severe storms that may bring a threat for gusty
winds from Waycross/US82 areas north to the Altamaha river basin
late Thursday. Dry conditions will remain elsewhere with highs
reaching the mid 90s with isolated upper 90s along the I-95 and
US-17 corridors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Friday, a more potent mid to upper level trough will swing ESE
from the mid MS valley to the southern Appalachians and support
the eastward progression of a surface cold front into the lower
deep south into the FL Gulf coast. Enhanced low and mid level flow
ahead of the front will boost moisture to above normal levels
with shortwave energy and the unstable airmass spurring scattered
to numerous coverage of showers and T`storms. Isolated severe
storms will be possible with a threat for gusty winds. Increased
clouds will limit highs into the mid to upper 80s over much of SE
GA and towards Suwannee valley with low 90s over the I-95 corridor
of NE FL ahead of the front where less clouds and lower showers
and T`storm coverage expected until later in the afternoon.
Morning lows will be muggier in the low 70s.

Saturday, the cold front will sink from NE FL to central FL with
more confidence between the ECMWF and the GFS models on pressing
the front south of the area by afternoon. Therefore, only showing
isolated showers in the forecast with a few T`Storms possible over
southern most counties of north central FL. Weak ridging aloft
will move in the wake of a departing trough from the mid MS valley
into the southern Appalachians and allow weak high pressure to
shift from central plains to the Gulf coast with lower dewpoints
in the 50s and west to NW winds along and behind the front with a
drop in high temperatures with low 80s over SE GA into interior
NE FL ranging into the upper 80s over the St Johns river basin and
north central FL. Lows Saturday will be in the upper 50s/low 60s
NW of Jacksonville and mid to upper 60s closer to the NE FL coast
and north central FL.

Sunday, next upstream mid to upper level trough pinwheels into
the Ohio Valley. Both GFS and ECMWF models hold off the next wave
of low pressure from arriving until late Sunday night into Monday
with potential for heavier rain showers and some embedded strong
to severe storms and low level flow once again becomes enhanced.
Will limit coverage of showers and storms to areas south of I-10
for Sunday and then steadily raise coverage to scattered chances
through Monday afternoon. Winds will be light from the WNW Sunday
and become variable on Monday depending on the exact track of the
wave of low pressure. Highs Sunday will be similar to Saturday
with low 80s over SE GA and mid to upper 80s over much of NE FL,
then cooler Monday with low 80s area wide due to more clouds and
shower potential. Cooler lows in the upper 50s inland expected
with low 60s closer to the coast to end the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR clouds at 4-5 kft. Very isolated weak convection has developed
so far not far from SGJ and GNV. But for now, the forecast remains
on track with TEMPO groups for JAX, VQQ, and GNV where the chances
are best at this time. Only adjustment was to add some vsby
problems in the TSRA this afternoon and evening and add some
variable wind directions, mostly based on latest HRRR runs. So
looks like most convection winding down by 04z tonight, but think
a couple of lingering showers are possible during that time. Some
fog may develop late tonight to the west of all the TAF sites so
no mention in the latest TAF set at this time. VFR clouds expected
on Tuesday. Sfc winds turning southeast around 10 kt already at
SGJ, CRG, and SSI and within the next couple of hours for JAX and
VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Breezy south winds expected tonight that may near exercise caution
criteria for a brief time but mainly around solid 15 kt, before
diminishing to 10-15 kt after 06z. Combined seas near 2-4 ft. A
near repeat of basic wind dir and speeds anticipated on Tuesday,
and likely for Wed and Thu as the high pressure ridge remains well
to the east of the area supporting a decent pressure gradient.
Winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible by late afternoon and well
into the evening, with increasing chances of this by Thu and Fri
as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. Increased
chance of offshore moving t-storms by Friday in association with
the frontal boundary. The front looks to pass through the area by
Saturday morning, with wind flow becoming northwest to north
behind the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk at area beaches through Tuesday and probably
Wed with little overall change anticipated at this time based on surf
near the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic over the area
with light southerly flow 5-10 mph through sunset. Atlantic
seabreeze will bring southeast winds 10-15 mph inland to US-17,
then towards US 301 before merging with the southwesterly Gulf
seabreeze. Scattered storms will result along US301 and I-75 over
Florida and from US-1 to US441 over Georgia with gusty winds
40-50 mph, locally heavy downpours, and rainfall amounts up to
2 inches in isolated spots. Southwest winds prevail Wednesday
pining the Atlantic seabreeze east of I-95 with isolated storms
expected east of US17 to the coast. Drier conditions in store
Wednesday with hotter temperatures rising to the mid 90s with
lower Min RH values, but still above critical values. Hot and dry
weather conditions persist into Thursday except for late day
scattered showers/storms over Georgia. High dispersions due to
increasing southwest transport winds expected Tuesday and also
Wednesday. Next cold front arrives on Friday with a threat for
isolated severe storms. &&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG
95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  91  68  92 /  30   0   0  10
SSI  70  87  70  89 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  67  92  69  94 /  30  20   0   0
SGJ  69  90  70  91 /  20  20   0   0
GNV  66  91  67  92 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  67  91  68  93 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$