National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221740
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather lasts at least into Tuesday afternoon.

- Frost is expected in many sheltered valley locations again late
  tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- A moisture-starved cold front is forecast to pass Tuesday night
  into Wednesday morning, bringing a round of light rain mainly
  for northern locations.

- Below normal temperatures return from Wednesday into Thursday
  morning before a warm front arrives on Friday and ushers in
  well above normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT MON APR 22 2024

No changes needed other than to align forecast with the latest
obs.

UPDATE Issued at 928 AM EDT MON APR 22 2024

An area of high pressure has settled to our southeast across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Morning sounding at ILN showing very dry
air aloft and this will be the story here in eastern Kentucky
today. Given this expect a dry day with little if any clouds. No
big changes needed for this update with forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 714 AM EDT MON APR 22 2024

The forecast is on track so no changes are made except to blend in
latest observed trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT MON APR 22 2024

Fair weather prevails until Tuesday afternoon as upper ridging
builds over eastern Kentucky today and tonight, with increasing
clouds reaching the northwestern corner of the CWA by the end of the
period as an upper trough and cold front approach.

The primary hazard concern will continue to be the potential for
frost developing once again late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
While frost is more widespread this morning, warmer ridgetop
temperatures in the lower 40s are expected tonight in part due to
thin high-level cloud cover as well as increasing warm advection
above the nighttime inversion. Thus, frost potential is expected
to be more confined to the valleys tonight below the thermal
belts, where locally generated COOP MOS suggests lows bottoming
out in the 30 to 35 degree range. This is a favorable scenario for
ridge-valley splits in temperatures reaching or exceeding 10
degrees across eastern Kentucky.

Highs today will begin a rising trend under sunny skies, with upper
50s to mid 60s expected, which is between 5 and 10 degrees below
normal for late April. Tuesday`s highs will see a return to near
normal temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s as warm
advection increases, with high clouds gradually thickening
through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT MON APR 22 2024

To start the period, a cold front extending from a surface low
moving across the Great Lakes will slowly be diving southeast into
the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase ahead of
the front but due a widespread lack of instability due to the timing
of the front, severe weather looks to be limited. Models have
increased QPF slightly across the Bluegrass counties which through
FROPA are forecast to see about 0.30" with decreasing amounts moving
southward toward the TN/KY state line.

High pressure builds back into the region for late Wednesday and
persists through early Friday morning. Frost may be possible
Thursday morning as northwesterly flow and clear skies will allow
for temperatures to fall across the area. The more sheltered eastern
valleys are the most likely to see the increase frost potential.
Models have backed off a little bit on the previously mentioned
active forecast for the end of the period. The GFS continues to keep
the pattern active while the ECMWF opts to keep the area mainly dry.
They do agree on temperatures climbing into the upper-70s to low 80s
but differ on how several perturbations will move through the area.
However, due to the differences in model agreement, opted to go
with the NBM solution that favors 20-40% chance of showers and
storms through the end of the period.

Overall, a relatively active and cool start to the forecast period
is expected but toward the end of next week, model differences begin
to arise leading to a messy solution. However, PoP chances do seem
possible through the end of the period with temperatures becoming
more seasonal by the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON APR 22 2024

Surface high nearby and dry air in place will keep it VFR through
the period outside of some high clouds that move in tonight. The
winds will generally be variable at 5 knots or less through the
period, but we begin the period more northwest shifting to the
southwest to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...DJ