978
FXUS62 KKEY 291857
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
257 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Overall it has been a decent day across the Florida Keys. However,
winds have remained more elevated than anticipated resulting in
the breezy conditions continuing through this afternoon. KBYX
radar continues to detect isolated showers across the westernmost
waters, including the Dry Tortugas. Earlier this morning, some
showers moved across mainly Key West, which have since waned and
it has turned out to be a decent afternoon besides for the wind.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s
with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Strong high pressure remains anchored over the western North
Atlantic about mid-way between Bermuda and the Northwestern
Bahamas. As a result, marine platforms around the Keys are
observing east to southeast breezes between 15 to 20 knots with
occasional gusts to 25 knots, especially at Sand Key. Island
Chain communities are observing east to southeast breezes between
15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts as high as 30 mph.

.FORECAST...
The forecast through mid week will continue to be dominated by
the aforementioned strong high pressure as it remains nearly
stationary about mid way between Bermuda and the Northwestern
Bahamas. Due to this, expect breezy conditions to continue along
the Island Chain through at least the evening hours with gradual
slackening of these east to southeast breezes overnight into
Tuesday morning as the high slowly weakens. Due to residual
moisture continuing to remain trapped beneath the inversion, PoPs
were increased for tonight through Tuesday night from 10% to 20%.
Hi-res model guidance has also been consistent in showing some
activity moving through the Keys during this time frame.

Mid-late week, the previous high pressure begins to retreat
further into the Atlantic as another high transits the Eastern
United States eventually merging with the previous high. This will
result in waxing and waning winds as well as shifting winds
between northeast to southeast along the Chain but remaining
below breezy thresholds for the time being. Also, a little
moisture is expected to remain present in the low levels keeping
slight chances (10%) through the extended forecast period. Also,
expect a fairly stagnant pattern much of the week with highs and
lows as well as humidity remaining very similar.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore Gulf
waters, the Bayside and Gulfside waters, Hawk Channel and the
Straits of Florida, mainly to the west of Craig Key. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) is headlined for the easternmost
Straits of Florida for winds remaining between 15 to 20 knots
tonight. From synopsis, high pressure is expected to meander in
the western North Atlantic about half way between the Northwestern
Bahamas and Bermuda through mid week. As this high slowly
weakens, east to southeast breezes will continue to slowly slacken
becoming gentle to moderate. Another high moving across the
eastern United States mid to late week will phase with the current
high over the Atlantic. This will result in peaking and lulling
northeast to east breezes for late week into the first half of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Near surface winds will continue to be easterly and gusty to
near 25 knots, with gusts starting to subside starting tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  75  84  76 /  10  20  20  20
Marathon  84  75  86  76 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GMZ032>035-
     043-044-053>055-073>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....DR

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