501
FXUS62 KKEY 271434
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
After quite a long dry stretch, it appears today has broken that
stretch in some areas at least. KBYX radar shows isolated showers
moving from east to west in the easterly flow this morning. At the
office, a trace has been observed so far, though, some other
locations further up the Keys, in particular, the Middle and Upper
Keys, have picked up a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall as
estimated by MRMS. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees with dew points in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Sprawling high pressure remains in place across
the western North Atlantic this morning. As a result, marine
platforms around the Keys are observing east winds of 20 to 25
knots with occasional gusts to 28 knots. Island Chain communities
were observing east winds near 20 mph with occasional gusts to
near 30 mph. The 12z RAOB from this morning shows decent moisture
from the surface up to approximately 845 mb. The wind profile
shows slight veering with wind speeds pretty consistent near 25
knots. Due to the slight veering and some speed convergence, the
shower coverage across the Keys was a bit more than anticipated.
Therefore, we went ahead and increased the PoP chances from 10 to
20 percent to account for slightly more coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys
coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered over New
England will dive southward off the Atlantic Coast through the
weekend. Easterly breezes will freshen further in the short term,
with strong breezes expected through at least Sunday. As the high
weakens somewhat south of Bermuda early next week, breezes will
slacken, although occasionally fresh breezes will continue through
the first half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Despite drive-by VCSH through the afternoon hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at the island terminals. Near-surface winds will
remain sustained from the east at near 15 knots, with occasional
gusts 20 to 25 knots, especially in the vicinity of the passing
showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, in 2003, a severe
thunderstorm produced a 53 mph gust and 1/2" to 1&3/4" hail over
the entire island of Key West for about 10 minutes. This was the
largest hail ever recorded in Key West, and tied the largest ever
in Monroe County. And in 1980, hail smaller than 3/4" fell in Key
West and an F2 tornado hit Cudjoe Key and/or Ramrod Key, resulting
In 10 injuries and $250k in damage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  75  84  75 /  20  10  10  20
Marathon  84  75  83  75 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT

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