Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
986 FXUS65 KLKN 102204 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 304 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm weather with continued low probability for afternoon showers and thunderstorms at least Saturday and again early next week in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Afternoon breezes persist thru next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms focused across central Nevada dissipate thru this evening and the first part of tonight with dry weather expected the latter half of the night. Northeasterly breezes also ease tonight. Overnight low temperatures mostly reside in the 30s. Closed upper low residing along the Utah/Arizona state line meanders east Saturday and Saturday night with a 10% probability for light afternoon showers in and near White Pine County, although any activity will generally be situated over the high terrain. Any rainfall accumulations over the terrain will be light and around 0.10 or less. Northerly afternoon breezes also in place with gusts 20-25 mph. Winds trend light to calm overnight. Daytime high temperatures Saturday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. Upper level ridging will to move over the Great Basin region on Sunday allowing for warming temperatures with highs in the 70s and. This will bring warm conditions in the 70s and lower 80s under a lighter, but still noticeable, northwest wind regime. An upper-level wave is expected to move through northern and central Nevada Monday through Tuesday. Weak forcing associated with the passing trough and afternoon instability will result in mainly afternoon convective showers with some isolated thunderstorms across northeastern Nevada. Chances for any rain are generally less than 30% with widespread wetting rains not expected. Chances for showers move into east-central Nevada Tuesday but limited atmospheric moisture will result in light to no rain accumulation. Temperatures will cool a couple of degrees early next week as a result of the weak cold front but highs will still reach well into the 70s for most valleys. Lows through the weekend and into next week will be above freezing in the 40s and some lower 50s. Ensemble guidance shows a fairly confident forecast for later next week with ridging taking hold once again across the region. However, some uncertainty exists in the strength but temperatures are expected to generally increase under light surface winds, limited cloud cover. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s through the end of the week with lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION...Northeasterly winds will continue into the evening hours while slowly diminishing across northern and central Nevada. Shower activity including threat of TS will diminish from 01Z to 03Z across central Nevada. Chances for TS at KEKO will be as high as 25% this afternoon and a bit lower at KTPH at around 15%. Showers/THundershower activity will be light, though possibly mixed with small hail and gusty outflow winds in any thunderstorms that may develop over central NV. VFR conditions are expected across the I-80 corridor. Cloud bases will be elevated at KELY and KTPH so predominant VFR conditions should prevail through tonight. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across many streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to seasonal snow melt. Temperature forecasts for the upcoming weekend and into early next week depict spring-like temperatures with daytime highs in the 70s and possibly the low 80s for some locales. Overnight lows across the high elevations also likely reside warming than freezing, further exacerbating snow melt. Given the amount of high elevation snow pack remaining, look for runoff to increase, causing continued elevated flows and rises for many area streams and rivers across northern and central Nevada. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and is forecast remain in action stage for the next few days. The Humboldt River at Comus is in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next few days. Wildhorse Dam Reservoir currently resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/93/93