828
FXUS63 KLMK 300710
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Showers east of Interstate 65 to start the day, ending mid to
    late morning.

*   Dry and warm Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 80s.

*   Showers and thunderstorms likely Friday, with a chance of rain
    lingering over the weekend. Forecast confidence in detailed
    timing remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Upper low is opening up as it lifts NE from the MN Arrowhead into
Canada, with a weak sfc reflection over Lake Superior and cold front
trailing SSW through Illinois into SE Missouri. Pre-frontal band of
showers supported by a weak, progressive southern stream wave, is
making slow but steady progress through the Ohio Valley, with the
main axis of precip now getting into the I-75 corridor.

Main impact this morning will be a steady soaking rain, mainly
affecting the Bluegrass region and south-central Kentucky. Precip
should end by midday, but stratus will linger behind the departing
precip shield until fropa this afternoon. Areas west of I-65 will be
the first to see clearing, and temps will reach the mid/upper 70s,
while the Bluegrass region might barely reach 70 if the clouds hang
on long enough.

Expect clear skies and light winds tonight as a weak bubble of high
pressure builds across the region. Model guidance is not really
hitting fog overnight, but will have to watch dewpoint trends
through the day to confirm whether dry advection will truly win out.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Wednesday...

Upper level ridging is still forecast to amplify over the Southeast
and Ohio Valley as a compact wave lifts across Lake Superior into
southern Ontario. This northern stream wave leaves behind a diffuse
cold front that sinks toward the Ohio River Wednesday afternoon.
While there is some moisture pooling along the boundary, lift looks
very weak to negligible and is unlikely to overcome mid-level
capping. At this point, just expect a cu field with limited vertical
development. This should leave us with a partly to mostly sunny day
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night - Thursday...

A lee-side low develops northeast across the central Plains in
response to an upper level trough swinging east from the Rockies.
The upper level pattern continues to amplify during this time frame
with a downstream ridge building over the eastern US. The subtle sfc
boundary in the region lifts well to our north as a warm front as
the Plains low races northeastward. With dry air, subsidence aloft,
and an absence of any low-level forcing, dry and warm weather
continues to look likely through Thursday. Expect morning lows in
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees, and afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

Thursday night - Monday...

A low pressure system continues to develop northeast across portions
of the Upper Midwest Thursday night. A cold front advances across
the Mississippi River Valley and appears likely to cross central
Kentucky and southern Indiana on Friday. A mid-level shortwave
disturbance is forecast to lift northeast from the ArkLaTex
vicinity, potentially moving over the forecast area Friday morning.
As height falls overspread the region and southwesterly flow advects
in deeper moisture, expect increasing rain chances Thursday night.
Rain and thunderstorm chances are still highest Friday into Friday
night. Based on available instability and shear parameters at this
time range, the severe weather threat is rather low. After the
rather warm day Thursday, abundant cloud cover and precipitation
will likely keep highs in the mid 70s to near 80 Friday.

We should at least briefly dry out in the wake of the cold front
heading into the first part of the weekend. However, synoptic scale
model spread remains large Saturday and beyond. Run-to-run model
consistency is still lacking, and ensemble guidance presents a broad
range of solutions. Forecast confidence in the details and timing is
low, and this forecast maintains a chance of rain (generally 30-60%)
throughout the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Band of showers moving across SDF and BWG currently, and will be
into LEX very close to the valid time of the TAF. Generally MVFR
cig/vis expected in the rain, with occasional dips into IFR in the
heavier precip.

Steady rain should be off to the east before daybreak, with
lingering stratus and even a few pockets of light rain into the
morning.  Generally S-SW winds overnight will become W-NW, but
speeds remain solidly below 10 kt.

Cigs improve to VFR by midday with NW winds in the afternoon as a
bubble of high pressure builds in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...RAS