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000
FXUS63 KLMK 221436
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1036 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon
    and night. No severe weather.

*   The coolest night during this forecast period will be Wednesday
    night with lows in the mid-upper 30s in southern Indiana and
    the northern Blue Grass.

*   Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday-Sunday. The chances
    of severe weather during this period appear low at this time,
    but future forecasts should be monitored as the weekend
    approaches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Sfc high centered over the Ozarks this morning will provide abundant
sunshine and generally light winds across southern IN and central
KY. Forecast remains on track to see warmer temperatures this
afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 60s. Forecast looks good with
no changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Currently... High pressure is slowly building into the Ohio Valley
from the southwest. As a result, we are observing a clear night with
calm to light winds and temperatures falling into the low-mid 30s.
These are all ingredients for frost development, therefore, a Frost
Advisory remains in effect until 13Z.

Monday... High pressure and ridging aloft will continue to build
into the region allowing clear skies and light winds to prevail
through the day. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal
in the low to mid 60s. Ample atmospheric mixing will lead to some
dry air mix down this afternoon, where minimum relative humidity
will be in the mid-upper 20% range. With a typical dry air mix down
set up, momentum aloft is brought down to the surface, however,
winds up to the mixing level (~800mb) remain light. These weather
elements will allow for a pleasant day to get out and enjoy Earth
Day.

Monday Night... High pressure will slowly move east of the region,
allowing winds to back to a southerly direction. A low pressure
system swinging through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes will send
a cold front south into the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this front, high
clouds will begin to stream overhead from northwest to southeast.
These clouds will increase in coverage in the early morning hours on
Tuesday. Light warm air advection and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures about 6-9 degrees warmer than the previous night. Low
temperatures Tuesday morning are expected to be in the low-mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Low pressure crossing Ontario and Quebec will pull a cold front
through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. This system will get pinched
between two domes of high pressure to its north and south, with not
much moisture or instability for the front to work with. As a
result, mostly just light rain showers with perhaps a few isolated
thundershowers are expected ahead of the front.

Dry conditions will return Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
slides from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Wednesday night will
be chilly with northeast surface winds bringing cold air into the
region, resulting in temperatures by sunrise Thursday morning
ranging from the mid 30s in southeast Indiana and the northern Blue
Grass to the mid 40s near the Tennessee border. The best chance for
any patchy frost should be along and northeast of a line from Salem
to New Castle to Paris, where temperatures will be coolest, skies
will be the most cloud-free, winds will be lightest, and LREF shows
a 1 in 5 chance of temperatures below 36 degrees.

There will then be a change in the weather for the Friday-Sunday
period as a trough west/ridge east 500mb pattern sets up, with
occasional waves ejecting out of the western trough across the
central Plains and Midwest. The best chances for severe weather will
remain to our west from the southern and central Plains into the
Midwest, but scattered showers and storms can be expected each day
this far east, especially in the afternoons and evenings as surface
dew points rise from the 50s on Friday to around 60 on Saturday and
the lower 60s on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate as well, and by
Sunday it will feel more like early June with increased humidity and
afternoon temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle. High pressure and
ridging aloft will bring clear skies and calm to light winds. Monday
night into Tuesday morning, high clouds will begin to stream into
the region ahead of a cold front progged to move through on Tuesday
night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SRM