Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 262117
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
217 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...26/127 PM.

Skies will be partly cloudy through Wednesday with a slight
warming trend. A weak system will bring light rain to the Central
Coast Thursday. A more significant storm moves into the region
Friday and will last through the weekend, possibly bringing heavy
precipitation and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...26/151 PM.

Weak high pressure over the area through Wednesday will maintain
fair weather with just some breezy conditions across the mountains
and southern Santa Barbara County and some areas of morning
stratus across coast/valleys.

The high will break down Wednesday night and allow a weak cold
front to pass through the Central Coast early Thursday. Most of
the ensemble solutions are now showing some very light rain down
to around Santa Maria with this one, mainly a quarter inch or
less, and pops have been adjusted upwards north of Pt Conception.
Elsewhere just some increasing mid and high clouds as well as
more widespread coast/valley stratus and cooler temperatures.

Rain will be arriving with the next and much stronger system by
Friday afternoon along the Central Coast and evening farther
south. Details on this will be in the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...26/217 PM.

12z ensembles haven`t strayed too much from yesterday`s model
solutions, though the GEFS solutions as a whole are 30-50% lighter
with the rainfall amounts area-wide. The track of the low is
almost identical to yesterday and timing and moisture advection
are very similar as well. As a result, overall messaging on this
system is about the same. Most likely rain totals with this system
remain 1-3" for coast/valleys/lower foothills and 3-6" for higher
south facing foothills and mountains. Rain rates up to a half inch
possible and locally higher in upslope areas. A lot of that will
fall in late Friday into Saturday afternoon when the main cold
frontal band and dynamics come through, while the Saturday evening
into Monday period will be in the more showery/convective portion
of the storm with more variable rain amounts. Thunderstorms with
periods of very heavy rain are possible during this latter portion
of the storm as the upper low passes near or just south of LA
County. Can`t rule out isolated severe weather as well,
especially southern areas closer to the upper low passage Sunday,
including hail, strong winds, and even a small waterspout or
tornado.

In the mountains, mainly at or above 6000 feet, significant snow
accumulations are expected, as much as 2-3 feet at the higher
elevations. Models are not indicating enough cold air to lower
snow levels to pass level on Interstate 5 but some light
accumulations are possible down to 5000 feet and possibly as low
as 4500`.

Also, given the state of our hillsides after the heavy rain
earlier this season it`s very likely that this storm will create
many additional mud and rock slides in the hills and mountains so
residents in those areas are urged to take any precautions as soon
as possible.

Dry weather expected Tuesday with ridging quickly building behind
the departed upper low. Models now trending dry for the remainder
of next week with warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1818Z.

At 18Z, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence in the current forecast for the desert terminals.
Low to moderate confidence for the coastal and valley terminals.
There is a 30-50 percent chance of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys mainly
after 06Z for coastal and valley TAFs, except a 50-70 percent
chance for KLAX, KSMO, KLGB. Periods of weak wind shear and
turbulence are possible between 23Z and 07Z at KSBA.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 06Z and then low confidence
after 06Z with a 50-70 percent chance of MVFR cigs between
06-20Z. There is a less than 10 percent chance for an 8 kt
easterly component wind sometime between 12-18Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF through 06Z and then low confidence
after 06Z with a 30-50 percent chance of MVFR/IFR cigs between
08-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/116 PM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast through
Thursday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Higher confidence
exists in the wind forecast relative to the sea forecast.

For the waters outside the Channel Islands to southwest through
northwest and along the Central Coast, a 70-100 percent chance of
Small Craft Advisory winds from near Point Sal south to southeast
to San Clemente and San Nicolas Islands will increase and spread
northward into this afternoon and this evening. Widespread SCA
conditions are expected to develop by this evening. Winds and seas
will diminish between late this evening and into Wednesday
morning, but there is a high chance of SCAs being extended for the
to the southwest and west of the Channel Islands from Point
Conception to San Nicolas Islands into Wednesday morning. Winds
and seas will fall below SCA levels for Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday afternoon, then there is a moderate-to-high
chance of SCA conditions returning on Thursday night through the
weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-70 percent
chance by this evening. The highest chance are for the western and
central portion of the Santa Barbara Channel, while the lowest
chance are for southeastern portion of the inner waters. By late
tonight, winds and seas will fall below SCA levels through at
least Thursday afternoon.

There is a moderate- to-high chance of SCA conditions returning
on Thursday night through the weekend. There is a 10 percent
chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...26/350 AM.

A return of high surf is expected between Thursday night and the
weekend as a storm system will bring a large northwesterly swell
to the region. Surf as high as 10 and 13 feet is expected at
Central Coast beaches, and 4 to 7 feet at Los Angeles and Ventura
County beaches. Surf should peak on Saturday or Saturday night.
Strong and dangerous rip currents are expected during this
period.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      349-351-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RM/Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox


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